Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tusker vs KVZ

Africa Africa

CECAFA Kagame Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Simiyu I.
80' Event
Mdaoma V.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Tusker
15%
Draws
0%
KVZ
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tusker come out ahead of KVZ on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Tusker taking it.
  • Tusker have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tusker, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.2%
Tusker Clean Sheet 20%
KVZ Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker KVZ
Matches Played 25 9
Wins 12 1
Draws 3 0
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.96 0.22
Goals Conceded 0.84 2.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.57 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 CECAFA Kagame Cup
Tusker vs KVZ
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tusker Compare

Top Goalscorer Simiyu I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mdaoma V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.79

KVZ Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 85 / 100
KVZ 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker KVZ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tusker Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

KVZ let in goals in 100% of their last 9 matches.

KVZ's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Tusker scored in 60% of their last 25 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS KVZ
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 2.4
63% Over 1.5 80%
13% Over 2.5 40%
0% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 5

KVZ

(Away)
13 Sept
KVZ
0 : 3
Asswehly
04 Sept
Asswehly
1 : 0
KVZ
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
KVZ
0 : 4
Al-Hilal Omdurman
26 Jul
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
KVZ
Page 1 of 2

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 3 2 0 1 6:1 6
2 Vipers 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
3 APR 3 2 0 1 5:7 6
4 Garde Republicaine 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jamus 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
2 Simba 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Singida Black Stars 3 1 0 2 5:5 3
4 Mogadishu City 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rayon Sport 3 3 0 0 4:0 9
2 Al-Hilal Omdurman 3 2 0 1 6:1 6
3 Tusker 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
4 KVZ 3 0 0 3 0:8 0
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams