Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tusker vs Rayon Sport

Africa Africa

CECAFA Kagame Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Kodjo A.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Tusker
35%
Draws
24%
Rayon Sport
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tusker lately — more wins on the board than Rayon Sport.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Tusker have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Rayon Sport, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%
Rayon Sport Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker Rayon Sport
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 4 15
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 0.96 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.85 0.59
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 CECAFA Kagame Cup
Tusker vs Rayon Sport
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tusker Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Rayon Sport Compare

Top Goalscorer Kodjo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 41 / 100
Rayon Sport 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker Rayon Sport

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tusker Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tusker scored in 62% of their last 26 games.

Tusker has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Rayon Sport conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS Rayon Sport
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

Rayon Sport

(Away)
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
12 Sept
Rayon Sport
0 : 0
Panthere
04 Sept
Panthere
1 : 1
Rayon Sport
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Mahia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 3 2 0 1 6:1 6
2 Vipers 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
3 APR 3 2 0 1 5:7 6
4 Garde Republicaine 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jamus 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
2 Simba 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Singida Black Stars 3 1 0 2 5:5 3
4 Mogadishu City 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rayon Sport 3 3 0 0 4:0 9
2 Al-Hilal Omdurman 3 2 0 1 6:1 6
3 Tusker 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
4 KVZ 3 0 0 3 0:8 0
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams