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Tusker vs Shabana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tusker host Shabana in the Premier League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Shabana have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Tusker have conceded 0.97 and scored 0.97. Head-to-head, Tusker have won 1 to Shabana's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Feb 21, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.17 vs 0.94, favoring Tusker. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tusker
30%
Draws
23%
Shabana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Tusker carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Tusker Clean Sheet 20%
Shabana Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker Shabana
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 14 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 0.97 0.92
Goals Conceded 0.97 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Shabana vs Tusker
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs Shabana
1:1
Feb 26, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs Shabana
1:1
Jan 11, 2025 Premier League
Shabana vs Tusker
2:1
Feb 11, 2024 Premier League
Shabana vs Tusker
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 31 / 100
Shabana 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker Shabana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tusker Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tusker scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Tusker went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Shabana has conceded goals in 46% of their last 24 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS Shabana
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

Shabana

(Away)
31 May
Shabana
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
17 May
Bidco United
0 : 1
Shabana
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)