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Tusker vs Sofapaka

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Tusker Logo

Tusker

0 - 0
FT
Sofapaka Logo

Sofapaka

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tusker
6%
Draws
4%
Sofapaka
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tusker lately — more wins on the board than Sofapaka.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tusker taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker Sofapaka
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 2
Draws 4 9
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 0.75 0.57
Goals Conceded 0.5 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Tusker vs Sofapaka
0:0
Dec 14, 2025 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Tusker
0:2
May 18, 2025 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Tusker
7:1
Aug 24, 2024 Premier League
Tusker vs Sofapaka
1:0
Jan 14, 2024 Premier League
Tusker vs Sofapaka
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 95 / 100
Sofapaka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker Sofapaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TUS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tusker found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (33 games).

Sofapaka has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Tusker has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS Sofapaka
0.75 Goals Scored 0.57
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.14
25% Over 1.5 71%
13% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
26 Jul
Al-Hilal Omdurman
2 : 0
Tusker
14 Jun
Tusker
2 : 1
Police FC
31 May
Tusker
1 : 1
APS Bomet
Page 1 of 7

Sofapaka

(Away)
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0
Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0
Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)