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Twente W vs VV Alkmaar W

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Women 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Twente W play VV Alkmaar W in the Eredivisie Women 2022/2023. Twente W are favorites here. Recently, Twente W averaged 2.32 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. VV Alkmaar W averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.83 conceded. In past meetings, Twente W won 5, VV Alkmaar W won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 21, 2023 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.98 for Twente W and 1.00 for VV Alkmaar W. This points to a Twente W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Twente W
15%
Draws
14%
VV Alkmaar W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Twente W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Twente W picked up more points recently compared to VV Alkmaar W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.98 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Twente W Clean Sheet 23%
VV Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Twente W VV Alkmaar W
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 21
Goals Scored 2.32 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.1 2.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2023 Eredivisie Women
Twente W vs VV Alkmaar W
5:0
Sep 16, 2022 Eredivisie Women
VV Alkmaar W vs Twente W
0:5
Apr 29, 2022 Eredivisie Women
Twente W vs VV Alkmaar W
7:0
Nov 19, 2021 Eredivisie Women
VV Alkmaar W vs Twente W
1:5
Aug 27, 2021 Eredivisie Women
Twente W vs VV Alkmaar W
8:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Twente W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalma F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jansen R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

VV Alkmaar W Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Twente W 69 / 100
VV Alkmaar W 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Twente W VV Alkmaar W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Twente W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Twente W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.9%
1.59
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Twente W attacking → ← attacking VV Alkmaar W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Twente W scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

VV Alkmaar W let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 6.20 goals.

Twente W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

VV Alkmaar W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 17
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ajax W20181167:1555
2Twente W20180281:654
3Sittard W20113649:2736
4PSV W20112736:2335
5Den Haag W20102842:2132
6PEC Zwolle W2075826:3726
7Feyenoord W2066818:2424
8Heerenveen W20711224:5622
9VV Alkmaar W20331411:5512
10Telstar W20331418:6512
11SBV Excelsior W20221614:578