Sport Picks

Stadium Background

U. San Martin vs Moquegua

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2025 Estadio Miguel Grau
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

U. San Martin play Moquegua in the Liga 2 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, U. San Martin averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Moquegua averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, U. San Martin won 0, Moquegua won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 22, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for U. San Martin and 1.44 for Moquegua. This points to a Moquegua double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
U. San Martin
24%
Draws
44%
Moquegua
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Moquegua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • U. San Martin picked up more points recently compared to Moquegua.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
U. San Martin Clean Sheet 16%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric U. San Martin Moquegua
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 11 16
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.4 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2025 Liga 2
U. San Martin vs Moquegua
1:2
May 4, 2025 Liga 2
Moquegua vs U. San Martin
3:1
Sep 7, 2024 Liga 2
U. San Martin vs Moquegua
0:3
Aug 12, 2024 Liga 2
Moquegua vs U. San Martin
1:1
Jun 24, 2024 Liga 2
U. San Martin vs Moquegua
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

U. San Martin Compare

Top Goalscorer Huacachin D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Centurion L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramirez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

U. San Martin 32 / 100
Moquegua 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
U. San Martin Moquegua

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Moquegua or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

U. San Martin attacking → ← attacking Moquegua

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

U. San Martin scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Moquegua let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

U. San Martin went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Moquegua lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 54
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Cajamarca1281319:1325
2San Marcos125349:518
3Cesar Vallejo1252514:1017
4Carlos Mannucci1252517:1417
5ADA Jaen1244412:1316
6Llacuabamba1243512:1715
7Pirata123185:1610
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Comerciantes FC1484225:1228
2Moquegua1474320:1325
3Union Comercio1472524:1923
4Tacna Heroica1472525:2123
5Santos FC1463521:2121
6U. San Martin1462617:2020
7Deportivo Coopsol1433813:2512
8AD Cantolao1404107:214