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Uberlandia vs Rio Branco ES

Brazil Brazil

Serie D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uberlandia play Rio Branco ES in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uberlandia averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Rio Branco ES averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Uberlandia won 3, Rio Branco ES won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 27, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Uberlandia and 0.76 for Rio Branco ES. This points to a Uberlandia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Uberlandia
32%
Draws
30%
Rio Branco ES
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Uberlandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Uberlandia picked up more points recently compared to Rio Branco ES.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.76 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Uberlandia Clean Sheet 27%
Rio Branco ES Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uberlandia Rio Branco ES
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Serie D
Uberlandia vs Rio Branco ES
2:2
Jun 21, 2026 Serie D
Rio Branco ES vs Uberlandia
0:2
Aug 28, 2021 Serie D
Rio Branco ES vs Uberlandia
0:2
Jun 12, 2021 Serie D
Uberlandia vs Rio Branco ES
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uberlandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomas Bastos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Rio Branco ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Breninho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Geovane
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uberlandia 40 / 100
Rio Branco ES 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uberlandia Rio Branco ES

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uberlandia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uberlandia attacking → ← attacking Rio Branco ES

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uberlandia scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Rio Branco ES let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Uberlandia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Rio Branco ES lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 39
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50