Sport Picks
UCAM Murcia vs Melilla
Spain
Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio de La Condomina, Murcia 
Match Events
29'
29'
Soto A.
46'
46'
Lorenzo O.
48'
48'
Iglesias J.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
UCAM Murcia in this Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored UCAM Murcia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UCAM Murcia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- UCAM Murcia have won more games recently than Melilla.
- UCAM Murcia are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors UCAM Murcia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 68%
Melilla Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UCAM Murcia | Melilla |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.69 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 1, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs Melilla
3:2
Sep 7, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs UCAM Murcia
2:0
Aug 17, 2024 Club Friendly
UCAM Murcia vs Melilla
3:0
Aug 8, 2023 Club Friendly
UCAM Murcia vs Melilla
2:0
Aug 18, 2022 Club Friendly
UCAM Murcia vs Melilla
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
UCAM Murcia Compare
Top Goalscorer Soto A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Aquino D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Melilla Compare
Top Goalscorer Lorenzo O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UCAM Murcia 68 / 100
Melilla 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UCAM Murcia Melilla
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: UCAM Murcia scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Melilla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.
Melilla lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
UCAM Murcia VS Melilla
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
UCAM Murcia
(Home) 08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2 Orihuela
01 Aug
UCAM Murcia
1 : 1 Hercules
03 May
Xerez CD
1 : 0 UCAM Murcia
26 Apr
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2 Jaen
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1 UCAM Murcia
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2 Orihuela
01 Aug
UCAM Murcia
1 : 1 Hercules
26 Apr
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2 Jaen
12 Apr
UCAM Murcia
4 : 0 Malaga B
28 Mar
UCAM Murcia
2 : 0 Recreativo Huelva
Page 1 of 4
Melilla
(Away) 03 May
Malaga B
3 : 3 Melilla
26 Apr
Melilla
2 : 4 Linares
19 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0 Melilla
12 Apr
Melilla
0 : 1 Aguilas FC
05 Apr
CD Estepona
1 : 1 Melilla
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Malaga B
3 : 3 Melilla
19 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0 Melilla
05 Apr
CD Estepona
1 : 1 Melilla
18 Mar
CD Extremadura
1 : 0 Melilla
15 Mar
Xerez Deportivo FC
2 : 1 Melilla
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:38 | 63 |
| 2 | Deportiva Minera | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 50:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Aguilas FC | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 45:25 | 61 |
| 4 | Xerez CD | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 32:24 | 59 |
| 5 | Jaen | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 43:33 | 58 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 41:25 | 57 |
| 7 | UCAM Murcia | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49:41 | 55 |
| 8 | Linares | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 42:45 | 47 |
| 9 | La Union (Malacitano) | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 44:43 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | 45 |
| 11 | Yeclano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 33:33 | 44 |
| 12 | Antoniano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38:40 | 44 |
| 13 | CD Estepona | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40:44 | 44 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 28:37 | 40 |
| 15 | Xerez Deportivo FC | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 34:43 | 36 |
| 16 | Melilla | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 36:40 | 34 |
| 17 | Almeria B | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26:53 | 21 |
| 18 | Malaga B | 34 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 32:66 | 21 |
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)
