Sport Picks

Stadium Background

UCSA vs FC Chernihiv

Ukraine Ukraine

Persha Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Zakhidnyi P.
13'
Andrushchenko M.
14' Event
Khoblenko O.

AI Match Summary

The Persha Liga game between UCSA and FC Chernihiv finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UCSA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
UCSA
15%
Draws
51%
FC Chernihiv
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Chernihiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Chernihiv's 1.13 goals per match outpaces what UCSA have produced (1.07).
  • Win probability leans FC Chernihiv's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • FC Chernihiv have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
UCSA Clean Sheet 14%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UCSA FC Chernihiv
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.07 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Persha Liga
UCSA vs FC Chernihiv
3:2
May 2, 2026 Persha Liga
UCSA vs FC Chernihiv
0:2
Oct 13, 2025 Persha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs UCSA
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UCSA Compare

Top Goalscorer Khoblenko O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wojciechowski V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

FC Chernihiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Novikov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kartushov Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UCSA 27 / 100
FC Chernihiv 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UCSA FC Chernihiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Chernihiv Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UCSA scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

FC Chernihiv has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

FC Chernihiv's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

UCSA VS FC Chernihiv
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UCSA

(Home)
26 Sept
UCSA
0 : 0
Victoria
20 Sept
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
1 : 0
UCSA
11 Sept
UCSA
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
05 Sept
Metalist Kharkiv
3 : 1
UCSA
29 Aug
UCSA
1 : 2
Inhulets
Page 1 of 6

FC Chernihiv

(Away)
27 Sept
Metalist Kharkiv
2 : 0
FC Chernihiv
11 Sept
UCSA
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
05 Sept
FC Chernihiv
1 : 0
Nyva Ternopil
29 Aug
Oleksandriya
1 : 0
FC Chernihiv
23 Aug
LSTM Lutsk
1 : 2
FC Chernihiv
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Victoria 9 5 2 2 11:6 17
2 Kulikiv 9 5 2 2 19:9 17
3 SC Poltava 9 4 3 2 13:5 15
4 Oleksandriya 8 4 3 1 12:6 15
5 Inhulets 8 4 2 2 10:10 14
6 Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 9 4 2 3 12:9 14
7 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 8 4 1 3 14:12 13
8 Metalist Kharkiv 9 4 1 4 11:11 13
9 Fenix Mariupol 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
10 Lokomotyv Kyiv 9 3 3 3 9:9 12
11 UCSA 9 2 4 3 12:14 10
12 Nyva Ternopil 8 2 3 3 9:9 9
13 Kolos Kovalivka 2 8 3 0 5 8:15 9
14 FC Chernihiv 8 1 4 3 8:11 7
15 Zhytomyr 2 8 1 3 4 11:14 6
16 Probiy Horodenka 9 0 2 7 6:26 2
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Relegation Group)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)