Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Match Events

49'

Gabilondo I.

77'

Fernandez Pacheco A.

90'

Fernandez Pacheco A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

UD Aretxabaleta host Lagun Onak in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Lagun Onak have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while UD Aretxabaleta have conceded 2.25 and scored 1.38. Head-to-head, UD Aretxabaleta have won 2 to Lagun Onak's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 2.00) point toward Lagun Onak. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

UD Aretxabaleta

33%

Draws

40%

Lagun Onak

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Lagun Onak has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to UD Aretxabaleta.
Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Lagun Onak.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Tercera RFEF - Group 4 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%

Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UD Aretxabaleta	Lagun Onak
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	15
Draws	5	6
Losses	14	9
Goals Scored	1.38	1.75
Goals Conceded	2.25	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 55% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 41% - 54% Cards: 4 - 3

2:0

Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 4 - 2

0:2

Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

Jan 31, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 60% - 47% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez Pacheco A.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Lagun Onak Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabilondo I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Aretxabaleta 26 / 100

Lagun Onak 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UD Aretxabaleta Lagun Onak

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAG Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Aretxabaleta scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Lagun Onak let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

UD Aretxabaleta went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Lagun Onak lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Aretxabaleta VS Lagun Onak

1.38 Goals Scored 1.75

2.25 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 75%

88% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25