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UD Ourense vs Lugo

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Unzueta I.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between UD Ourense and Lugo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
UD Ourense
6%
Draws
4%
Lugo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: UD Ourense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • UD Ourense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • UD Ourense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 68%
Lugo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense Lugo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 8 12
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2025 Club Friendly
UD Ourense vs Lugo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ourense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Unzueta I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 95 / 100
Lugo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense Lugo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick U.D Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD Ourense scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: UD Ourense remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Lugo let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS Lugo
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%