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UD Ourense vs Lugo

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Unzueta I.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between UD Ourense and Lugo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
UD Ourense
15%
Draws
69%
Lugo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • UD Ourense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Lugo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 16%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense Lugo
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.27 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2025 Club Friendly
UD Ourense vs Lugo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ourense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Unzueta I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 10 / 100
Lugo 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense Lugo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD Ourense scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Lugo conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Recent resilience: UD Ourense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS Lugo
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ourense

(Home)
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1
Ponferradina
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
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Lugo

(Away)
20 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
Lugo
13 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
CD Coria
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Lugo
30 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 3
Lugo
21 Aug
Lugo
1 : 0
Ourense CF
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