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UD Ourense vs Paiosaco Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
de Prado S.
29' Event
Alfaya Y.
84' Event
Parrilla P.

AI Match Summary

UD Ourense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Ourense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
UD Ourense
20%
Draws
73%
Paiosaco
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paiosaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Paiosaco haven't matched UD Ourense's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Paiosaco a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • UD Ourense have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 23%
Paiosaco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense Paiosaco
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 18 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.49 0.93
Goals Conceded 1 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Paiosaco
3:0
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs UD Ourense
0:1
Mar 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Paiosaco
2:0
Dec 4, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs UD Ourense
0:0
Jun 6, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs UD Ourense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer de Prado S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alfaya Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Paiosaco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 21 / 100
Paiosaco 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense Paiosaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paiosaco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Ourense's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

Paiosaco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: UD Ourense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ourense

(Home)
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0
Cacereno
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1
Ponferradina
Page 1 of 8

Paiosaco

(Away)
12 May
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Lugo B
05 May
UD Ourense
3 : 0
Paiosaco
01 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 0
Paiosaco
27 Apr
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Pontevedra B
21 Apr
Arzua
1 : 2
Paiosaco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)