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UD Ourense vs Reus FC Reddis Prediction & H2H Stats

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Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio de O Couto, Ourense
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Sanchez R.
30' Event
Carbia F.
72' Event
Barbosa J.

AI Match Summary

UD Ourense in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
UD Ourense
15%
Draws
73%
Reus FC Reddis
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Reus FC Reddis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD Ourense lately — more wins on the board than Reus FC Reddis.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Reus FC Reddis taking it.
  • UD Ourense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor UD Ourense, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 20%
Reus FC Reddis Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense Reus FC Reddis
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.23 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Reus FC Reddis
2:1
May 9, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Reus FC Reddis vs UD Ourense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barbosa J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Reus FC Reddis Compare

Top Goalscorer Carbia F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 28 / 100
Reus FC Reddis 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense Reus FC Reddis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Reus FC Reddis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD Ourense scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Reus FC Reddis has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Reus FC Reddis registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS Reus FC Reddis
0.38 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ourense

(Home)
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0
Cacereno
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1
Ponferradina
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Reus FC Reddis

(Away)
27 Sept
Utebo FC
0 : 1
Reus FC Reddis
20 Sept
Reus FC Reddis
1 : 0
Naxara
12 Sept
Ebro
2 : 0
Reus FC Reddis
06 Sept
Reus FC Reddis
0 : 1
Osasuna B
29 Aug
Reus FC Reddis
0 : 1
Castellon B
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Alaves B 2
Jaen 3
Baleares 4
Coruxo FC 1
Deportiva Minera 0
CD Coria 1
Real Oviedo B 3
Tudelano 1
UD Logrones 4
Getafe B 1
San Sebastian Reyes 3
Alcoyano 1
UD Ourense 2
Reus FC Reddis 1
Conquense 1
Xerez CD 1
Aguilas FC 4
Utebo FC 2
UD Poblense 3
Numancia 1
Final
Jaen 4
Baleares 2
CD Coria 4
Real Oviedo B 0
UD Logrones 2
San Sebastian Reyes 1
UD Ourense 3
Conquense 0
Aguilas FC 2
UD Poblense 1