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UD Ourense vs Sarriana

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Puime L.
44' Event
Sanchez R.
70' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

UD Ourense in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Ourense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
UD Ourense
15%
Draws
57%
Sarriana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sarriana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Sarriana haven't matched UD Ourense's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Sarriana a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 23%
Sarriana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense Sarriana
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.19 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs UD Ourense
3:1
Dec 21, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Sarriana
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 Club Friendly
UD Ourense vs Sarriana
5:0
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs UD Ourense
1:0
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Sarriana
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer Puime L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sanchez R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Sarriana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 24 / 100
Sarriana 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense Sarriana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarriana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Ourense's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Sarriana conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Sarriana has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS Sarriana
1.5 Goals Scored 1.17
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.17
75% Over 1.5 33%
50% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ourense

(Home)
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1
Ponferradina
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
08 Aug
Celta Vigo B
2 : 0
UD Ourense
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Sarriana

(Away)
06 Sept
Estradense
1 : 3
Sarriana
03 May
Sarriana
3 : 4
Rayo Cantabria
26 Apr
Atletico Astorga
1 : 0
Sarriana
19 Apr
Sarriana
0 : 1
Marino De Luanco
12 Apr
Bergantinos
0 : 1
Sarriana
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