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UD Poblense vs Pena Deportiva - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UD Poblense host Pena Deportiva in the Segunda RFEF - Group 3. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: UD Poblense at 1 goals for, 1 against; Pena Deportiva at 1.71 for, 1.36 against. Past meetings favor Pena Deportiva slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 19, 2019, ending 3:2. xG projections (1.25 - 1.13) back Pena Deportiva to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
UD Poblense
15%
Draws
34%
Pena Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD Poblense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • UD Poblense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
UD Poblense Clean Sheet 20%
Pena Deportiva Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Poblense Pena Deportiva
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1 1.71
Goals Conceded 1 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Poblense vs Pena Deportiva
3:2
Sep 2, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs UD Poblense
3:0
Jan 28, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Poblense vs Pena Deportiva
0:0
Sep 18, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Pena Deportiva vs UD Poblense
3:1
Mar 1, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Poblense vs Pena Deportiva
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Poblense 31 / 100
Pena Deportiva 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Poblense Pena Deportiva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Poblense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Pena Deportiva conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Attacking prowess: UD Poblense scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Pena Deportiva lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Poblense VS Pena Deportiva
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Poblense

(Home)
11 Oct
UD Poblense
2 : 1
Castellon B
04 Oct
Baleares
2 : 1
UD Poblense
27 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 0
Valencia B
20 Sept
Alcoyano
2 : 0
UD Poblense
13 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Castellonense
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Pena Deportiva

(Away)
11 Oct
Pena Deportiva
3 : 1
Orihuela
04 Oct
Valencia B
3 : 2
Pena Deportiva
27 Sept
Pena Deportiva
0 : 2
Real Murcia B
20 Sept
Ilicitano
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
13 Sept
Pena Deportiva
1 : 1
Yeclano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UCAM Murcia 6 4 0 2 14:6 12
2 Castellon B 6 4 0 2 13:7 12
3 La Nucia 6 4 0 2 10:6 12
4 Castellonense 6 4 0 2 10:6 12
5 Ciudad Cieza 6 3 2 1 10:4 11
6 Deportiva Minera 6 3 2 1 8:6 11
7 Alcoyano 6 3 1 2 6:6 10
8 Yeclano 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
9 CF Intercity 6 2 3 1 8:8 9
10 Lorca Deportiva 6 2 2 2 6:5 8
11 Ilicitano 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
12 Orihuela 6 2 1 3 7:14 7
13 Mallorca B 6 1 3 2 4:6 6
14 Baleares 6 1 3 2 8:11 6
15 UD Poblense 6 2 0 4 5:8 6
16 Pena Deportiva 6 1 1 4 6:9 4
17 Valencia B 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
18 Real Murcia B 6 1 1 4 5:12 4
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)