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Spain

Tercera Division - Group 12 2009/2010

Victoria CD

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Tercera Division - Group 12 2009/2010 encounter between UD Realejos and Victoria CD promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. UD Realejos averages 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded in recent matches. Victoria CD shows a form average of 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for UD Realejos, 3 wins for Victoria CD, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 17.04.11 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.04 for UD Realejos and 1.56 for Victoria CD, suggesting the primary value lies in the Victoria CD double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

UD Realejos

15%

Draws

52%

Victoria CD

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Victoria CD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

UD Realejos picked up more points recently compared to Victoria CD.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

UD Realejos Clean Sheet 15%

Victoria CD Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UD Realejos	Victoria CD
Matches Played	38	36
Wins	10	13
Draws	2	5
Losses	26	18
Goals Scored	1.11	0.92
Goals Conceded	2.13	1.31

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

17.04.11 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

Victoria CD vs UD Realejos

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 0 - 3

1:0

08.12.10 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

UD Realejos vs Victoria CD

Possession: 48% - 51% Cards: 0 - 1

0:2

18.04.10 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

UD Realejos vs Victoria CD

Possession: 46% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

13.12.09 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

Victoria CD vs UD Realejos

Possession: 50% - 59% Cards: 2 - 4

0:0

08.03.09 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

Victoria CD vs UD Realejos

Possession: 52% - 57% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

UD Realejos

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Victoria CD

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Realejos 33 / 100

Victoria CD 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UD Realejos Victoria CD

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Victoria CD or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

UD Realejos 36%

Victoria CD 42%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

UD Realejos 31%

Victoria CD 55%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

UD Realejos 33%

Victoria CD 52%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

UD Realejos 35%

Victoria CD 49%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

UD Realejos 30%

Victoria CD 57%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

UD Realejos 38%

Victoria CD 60%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UD Realejos attacking → ← attacking Victoria CD

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Realejos have found the net in 63% of their last 38 matches.

Victoria CD have conceded at least one goal in 61% of their last 36 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.20 goals per match.

UD Realejos remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Victoria CD suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 44

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corralejo	41	21	16	4	56:25	79
2	Las Palmas B	41	20	14	7	67:38	74
3	Pajara Playas	41	21	11	9	64:36	74
4	CD Marino	41	19	13	9	65:39	70
5	Mensajero	41	17	17	7	59:36	68
6	Atletico Granadilla	41	19	11	11	55:48	68
7	Villa Santa Brigida	41	15	15	11	42:29	60
8	UD Realejos	41	15	11	15	45:43	56
9	AD Huracan	41	14	13	14	42:40	55
10	SD Tenisca	41	16	7	18	55:47	55
11	Tijarafe	41	12	16	13	51:53	52
12	Castillo CF	41	11	17	13	46:50	50
13	Orientacion Maritima	41	12	14	15	44:55	50
14	Teror	41	12	13	16	46:53	49
15	CD Laguna	41	12	11	18	41:54	47
16	Las Zocas	41	11	14	16	38:53	47
17	Victoria CD	41	10	17	14	37:44	47
18	CD Charco Del Pino	41	10	16	15	39:50	46
19	Galdar	41	9	13	19	34:62	40
20	Los Llanos	41	7	15	19	33:58	36
21	Univ. Las Palmas B	41	7	11	23	44:73	32
22	Fuerteventura	21	5	7	9	23:40	22