Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12

CD Marino

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

UD San Fernando play CD Marino in the Tercera RFEF - Group 12. It looks like a close match. Recently, UD San Fernando averaged 1.44 goals scored and 0.72 conceded. CD Marino averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, UD San Fernando won 2, CD Marino won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 25, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for UD San Fernando and 0.50 for CD Marino. This points to a UD San Fernando double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

UD San Fernando

33%

Draws

24%

CD Marino

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: UD San Fernando

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

UD San Fernando picked up more points recently compared to CD Marino.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 31%

CD Marino Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UD San Fernando	CD Marino
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	17	6
Draws	9	15
Losses	6	9
Goals Scored	1.44	1.27
Goals Conceded	0.72	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

UD San Fernando vs CD Marino

Possession: 42% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

CD Marino vs UD San Fernando

Possession: 49% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

UD San Fernando vs CD Marino

Possession: 50% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Jan 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

CD Marino vs UD San Fernando

Possession: 56% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Apr 23, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12

UD San Fernando vs CD Marino

Possession: 56% - 55% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD San Fernando Compare

Top Goalscorer Martel J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

CD Marino Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD San Fernando 45 / 100

CD Marino 24 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UD San Fernando CD Marino

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UD San Fernando or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UD San Fernando attacking → ← attacking CD Marino

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD San Fernando scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

CD Marino let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

UD San Fernando went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

CD Marino lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 33

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Paso	34	18	13	3	51:19	67
2	UD San Fernando	34	19	9	6	49:23	66
3	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51:31	63
4	Tamaraceite	34	19	6	9	56:36	63
5	Panaderia	34	15	10	9	47:33	55
6	Las Palmas C	34	15	9	10	58:42	54
7	Tenerife C	34	14	10	10	49:46	52
8	Villa Santa Brigida	34	15	5	14	42:35	50
9	Lanzarote	34	12	12	10	45:36	48
10	Real Union Tenerife	34	12	9	13	34:32	45
11	San Miguel	34	10	9	15	37:43	39
12	CD Marino	34	8	15	11	44:40	39
13	Union Sur Yaiza	34	10	8	16	33:43	38
14	San Bartolome	34	8	12	14	30:55	36
15	Arucas	34	7	12	15	31:47	33
16	Herbania	34	7	11	16	39:58	32
17	SD Tenisca	34	6	7	21	32:68	25
18	Telde	34	5	10	19	30:71	25