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UD San Fernando vs Ursaria

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Alcalde J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 game between UD San Fernando and Ursaria finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ursaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
UD San Fernando
15%
Draws
39%
Ursaria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD San Fernando

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UD San Fernando come out ahead of Ursaria on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans UD San Fernando's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 68%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD San Fernando Ursaria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.48 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs UD San Fernando
1:1
Oct 8, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
UD San Fernando vs Ursaria
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD San Fernando Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Ursaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Alcalde J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD San Fernando 50 / 100
Ursaria 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD San Fernando Ursaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD San Fernando scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Ursaria conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

UD San Fernando went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD San Fernando VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

UD San Fernando

(Home)
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0
UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3
UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3
Orihuela
07 Jun
UD San Fernando
1 : 1
Tamaraceite
30 May
Tamaraceite
3 : 0
UD San Fernando
Page 1 of 7

Ursaria

(Away)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)