Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ufa vs Arsenal Tula - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL BetBoom Arena, Ufa
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ufa host Arsenal Tula in the FNL. This one's hard to separate. Arsenal Tula have shipped 1.67 goals a game lately, while Ufa have conceded 1.03 and scored 0.93. Past meetings favor Arsenal Tula slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 16, 2025, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 0.94) point toward Ufa. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Ufa
35%
Draws
37%
Arsenal Tula
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arsenal Tula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Ufa have won more games recently than Arsenal Tula.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Ufa Clean Sheet 20%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ufa Arsenal Tula
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.93 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2025 FNL
Ufa vs Arsenal Tula
1:2
Sep 20, 2025 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ufa
2:2
May 18, 2025 FNL
Ufa vs Arsenal Tula
1:2
Sep 29, 2024 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ufa
0:0
Mar 26, 2023 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ufa
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ufa 31 / 100
Arsenal Tula 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ufa Arsenal Tula

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ufa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Tula's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Ufa scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ufa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ufa VS Arsenal Tula
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ufa

(Home)
27 Sept
Ufa
0 : 0
Torpedo Moscow
18 Sept
Chelyabinsk
2 : 1
Ufa
13 Sept
Ufa
2 : 2
Ulyanovsk
09 Sept
Kaluga
1 : 0
Ufa
05 Sept
Ufa
1 : 1
Veles Moscow
Page 1 of 6

Arsenal Tula

(Away)
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1
Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2
Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1
Arsenal Tula
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2
SKA Khabarovsk
08 Sept
Tekstilshtik
1 : 0
Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 20:6 25
3 S. Kostroma 12 7 3 2 16:10 24
4 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
5 Veles Moscow 13 7 2 4 17:16 23
6 Torpedo Moscow 12 6 3 3 21:9 21
7 Ufa 12 4 6 2 16:13 18
8 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 15:13 16
10 Yenisey 12 3 5 4 15:20 14
11 Ulyanovsk 13 4 2 7 16:19 14
12 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 12:22 13
13 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 10:20 13
14 Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 7:15 12
15 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 13:19 12
16 Kamaz 12 2 3 7 11:19 9
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 11:23 6
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)