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Ufa vs Ulyanovsk Prediction & H2H Stats

Russia Russia

FNL BetBoom Arena, Ufa
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Stepanov D.
22'
Lipovoy D.
26'
Bykov A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Ufa
35%
Draws
45%
Ulyanovsk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ulyanovsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ufa have won more games recently than Ulyanovsk.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Ufa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Ufa Clean Sheet 18%
Ulyanovsk Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ufa Ulyanovsk
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 FNL
Ufa vs Ulyanovsk
2:2
Mar 21, 2026 FNL
Ufa vs Ulyanovsk
2:1
Oct 20, 2025 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Ufa
2:0
Oct 22, 2023 FNL 2 - Division A Gold
Ulyanovsk vs Ufa
0:3
Sep 13, 2023 Russian Cup
Ulyanovsk vs Ufa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ufa Compare

Top Goalscorer Ortiz D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gongadze G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ulyanovsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Bagatelia L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saplinov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ufa 41 / 100
Ulyanovsk 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ufa Ulyanovsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ufa scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Ulyanovsk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Ufa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ufa VS Ulyanovsk
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ufa

(Home)
27 Sept
Ufa
0 : 0
Torpedo Moscow
18 Sept
Chelyabinsk
2 : 1
Ufa
13 Sept
Ufa
2 : 2
Ulyanovsk
09 Sept
Kaluga
1 : 0
Ufa
05 Sept
Ufa
1 : 1
Veles Moscow
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Ulyanovsk

(Away)
26 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1
Leningradets
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1
S. Kostroma
13 Sept
Ufa
2 : 2
Ulyanovsk
09 Sept
FC Volgar-Astrakhan
0 : 1
Ulyanovsk
05 Sept
Ulyanovsk
3 : 0
Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 20:6 25
3 S. Kostroma 12 7 3 2 16:10 24
4 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
5 Veles Moscow 12 7 2 3 16:14 23
6 Torpedo Moscow 12 6 3 3 21:9 21
7 Ufa 12 4 6 2 16:13 18
8 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 15:13 16
10 Yenisey 12 3 5 4 15:20 14
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 12:22 13
12 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 10:20 13
13 Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 7:15 12
14 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 13:19 12
15 Ulyanovsk 12 3 2 7 14:18 11
16 Kamaz 12 2 3 7 11:19 9
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 11:23 6
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)