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Uganda Revenue vs Mbarara City

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Hamz Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Otti R.
44' Event
Waiswa M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Uganda Revenue in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Uganda Revenue.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Uganda Revenue
39%
Draws
31%
Mbarara City
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Uganda Revenue lately — more wins on the board than Mbarara City.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Uganda Revenue Clean Sheet 68%
Mbarara City Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Revenue Mbarara City
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 13 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Premier League
Uganda Revenue vs Mbarara City
2:0
Dec 17, 2025 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Uganda Revenue
1:0
Apr 4, 2025 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Uganda Revenue
0:2
Sep 28, 2024 Premier League
Uganda Revenue vs Mbarara City
1:1
May 7, 2024 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Uganda Revenue
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Revenue Compare

Top Goalscorer Otti R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Mbarara City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda Revenue 41 / 100
Mbarara City 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Revenue Mbarara City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick URA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbarara City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Uganda Revenue went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Uganda Revenue scored in 48% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Uganda Revenue VS Mbarara City
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615