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Uganda vs Chad

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Ikpeazu U.
(Penalty)
46' Event
Lorenzen M.
64' Event
Tchaouna H.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Uganda in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Uganda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Uganda
20%
Draws
16%
Chad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Uganda lately — more wins on the board than Chad.
  • Win probability leans Uganda's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 54.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Uganda Clean Sheet 20%
Chad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Chad
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 12 2
Draws 3 8
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.31 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.31 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.12 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 Friendly International
Uganda vs Chad
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Lorenzen M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 1.06

Chad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 85 / 100
Chad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Chad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chad conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Uganda found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (26 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Chad has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS Chad
1.38 Goals Scored 0.86
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.86
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 86%
38% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
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Chad

(Away)
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
17 Nov
Chad
2 : 2
Mozambique
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
12 Oct
Chad
2 : 3
Central Africa
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