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Uganda vs Gabon

World World

Friendly International 2025
Wed, Dec 17, 2025
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uganda host Gabon in the Friendly International 2025. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Uganda at 1.21 goals for, 1.33 against; Gabon at 1.57 for, 1.54 against. Head-to-head, Uganda have won 0 to Gabon's 1, with 4 draws. They last met on Dec 17, 2025, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.63, favoring Gabon. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Uganda
15%
Draws
36%
Gabon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Uganda haven't matched Gabon's recent run of results.
  • Uganda are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Uganda Clean Sheet 68%
Gabon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Gabon
Matches Played 24 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 3 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.21 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 17, 2025 Friendly International
Uganda vs Gabon
0:0
Dec 29, 2016 Friendly International
Uganda vs Gabon
0:0
Jan 10, 2016 Friendly International
Uganda vs Gabon
1:1
Jan 7, 2014 Friendly International
Gabon vs Uganda
0:0
Feb 12, 2011 African Nations Championship
Gabon vs Uganda
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 50 / 100
Gabon 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Gabon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (24 games).

Gabon let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Difficult form: Gabon registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS Gabon
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
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Gabon

(Away)
30 Mar
Trinidad & Tobago
2 : 3
Gabon
27 Mar
Uzbekistan
3 : 1
Gabon
31 Dec
Gabon
2 : 3
Ivory Coast
28 Dec
Gabon
2 : 3
Mozambique
24 Dec
Cameroon
1 : 0
Gabon
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