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Ukraine vs Northern Ireland - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League City Arena Trnava, Trnava
Ukraine Logo

Ukraine

0 - 3
FT
Northern Ireland Logo

Northern Ireland

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Brown C.
22' Event
Price I.
Assist: Morrison K.
56'
Sub
Brazhko V. In: Nazaryna Y.
Out: Brazhko V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Northern Ireland in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Northern Ireland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Ukraine
30%
Draws
47%
Northern Ireland
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Northern Ireland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Ukraine average 1.32 goals a game right now, well clear of Northern Ireland's 1.2.
  • Northern Ireland are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 25%
Northern Ireland Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ukraine Northern Ireland
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.32 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
0:3
Jun 3, 2021 Friendly International
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
1:0
Jun 16, 2016 Euro
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
0:2
Sep 6, 2003 Euro
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
0:0
Oct 16, 2002 Euro
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ukraine Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Northern Ireland Compare

Top Goalscorer Brown C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Price I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ukraine 29 / 100
Northern Ireland 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ukraine Northern Ireland

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Northern Ireland Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ukraine's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Northern Ireland conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Ukraine went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ukraine VS Northern Ireland
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ukraine

(Home)
05 Oct
Ukraine
1 : 2
Hungary
02 Oct
Ukraine
0 : 3
Northern Ireland
28 Sept
Georgia
0 : 0
Ukraine
25 Sept
Hungary
0 : 1
Ukraine
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
Page 1 of 7

Northern Ireland

(Away)
05 Oct
Northern Ireland
0 : 0
Georgia
02 Oct
Ukraine
0 : 3
Northern Ireland
28 Sept
Northern Ireland
0 : 0
Hungary
25 Sept
Georgia
0 : 1
Northern Ireland
08 Jun
France
3 : 1
Northern Ireland
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Slovenia 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Scotland 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 North Macedonia 4 0 0 4 0:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Ireland 4 2 2 0 4:0 8
2 Hungary 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
3 Ukraine 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
4 Georgia 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austria 4 2 2 0 9:5 8
2 Kosovo 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
3 Ireland 4 1 2 1 6:4 5
4 Israel 4 0 2 2 2:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden 4 3 1 0 7:3 10
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
3 Poland 4 1 1 2 7:4 4
4 Romania 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)