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Ullern vs Gjellerasen

Norway Norway

OBOS Supercup 2024
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Ullern advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ullern
15%
Draws
42%
Gjellerasen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ullern

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Ullern carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Ullern a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Ullern have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ullern, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ullern have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Ullern Clean Sheet 13%
Gjellerasen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ullern Gjellerasen
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 4 9
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.97 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.48 2.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2024 OBOS Supercup
Ullern vs Gjellerasen
3:2
Jan 28, 2023 Club Friendly
Gjellerasen vs Ullern
2:0
Apr 11, 2010 NM Cup
Ullern vs Gjellerasen
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ullern 84 / 100
Gjellerasen 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ullern Gjellerasen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ullern Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ullern scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Gjellerasen has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.33 goals.

Away concern: Gjellerasen has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ullern VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
2.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ullern

(Home)
26 Sept
Heming
3 : 0
Ullern
19 Sept
Ullern
2 : 1
Valerenga 2
12 Sept
Ready
4 : 3
Ullern
05 Sept
Ullern
2 : 6
Asker
30 Aug
Lokomotiv Oslo
2 : 3
Ullern
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Gjellerasen

(Away)
27 Oct
Gjellerasen
1 : 5
Funnefoss/Vormsund
20 Oct
Ready
7 : 0
Gjellerasen
06 Oct
Gjellerasen
3 : 2
Aalesund 2
28 Sept
Skjetten
4 : 0
Gjellerasen
22 Sept
Gjellerasen
2 : 0
Hodd 2
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Skeid 6 4 1 1 13:6 13
2 Ull/Kisa 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Eidsvold TF 6 3 2 1 15:10 11
4 Grorud 6 2 3 1 7:4 9
5 Lorenskog 6 2 0 4 8:16 6
6 Arendal 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
7 Nordstrand 6 1 0 5 6:14 3
Promotion - OBOS Supercup 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - OBOS Supercup 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Frigg 5 4 0 1 19:9 12
2 Oppsal 5 4 0 1 13:8 12
3 Asker 5 3 0 2 15:11 9
4 Ullern 5 2 0 3 11:12 6
5 Baerum 5 2 0 3 4:10 6
6 Gjellerasen 5 0 0 5 8:20 0
Promotion - OBOS Supercup 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - OBOS Supercup 2024 (Play Offs)