Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulm vs Ingolstadt

Germany Germany

3. Liga 2025/2026 Donaustadion, Ulm
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Seegert M.
27' Event
Kugel J.
Assist: Costly M.
65'
Brandt M.

AI Match Summary

Ingolstadt in this 3. Liga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ingolstadt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Ulm
15%
Draws
59%
Ingolstadt
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ingolstadt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Ingolstadt have won more games recently than Ulm.
  • Model gives Ingolstadt a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 3. Liga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Ulm Clean Sheet 13%
Ingolstadt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulm Ingolstadt
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.55 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Ingolstadt vs Ulm
1:2
Mar 15, 2026 3. Liga
Ulm vs Ingolstadt
1:3
Oct 4, 2025 3. Liga
Ingolstadt vs Ulm
4:1
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Ingolstadt vs Ulm
1:1
Feb 24, 2024 3. Liga
Ulm vs Ingolstadt
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulm Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Ingolstadt Compare

Top Goalscorer Kugel J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maljojoki J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulm 22 / 100
Ingolstadt 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulm Ingolstadt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ingolstadt Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulm scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Ingolstadt's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Ulm remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ulm VS Ingolstadt
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulm

(Home)
14 Aug
Ulm
0 : 2
Kickers Offenbach
07 Aug
Stutt. Kickers
4 : 2
Ulm
01 Aug
Regensburg
1 : 0
Ulm
25 Jul
Ulm
0 : 4
VfB Stuttgart II
19 Jul
Ulm
3 : 1
Bayern II
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Ingolstadt

(Away)
08 Aug
Ingolstadt
2 : 2
Wurzburger Kickers
01 Aug
Heidenheim
4 : 1
Ingolstadt
25 Jul
RB Leipzig
1 : 0
Ingolstadt
18 Jul
Ingolstadt
1 : 0
Palermo
09 Jul
Ingolstadt
2 : 0
LASK Linz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 VfL Osnabruck 38 24 8 6 66:34 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72:51 72
3 RW Essen 38 20 10 8 78:66 70
4 Duisburg 38 19 11 8 66:49 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 74:49 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 82:48 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 76:57 64
8 Munich 1860 38 15 11 12 54:53 56
9 Wehen 38 15 8 15 54:52 53
10 Mannheim 38 15 7 16 59:72 52
11 FC Viktoria Koln 38 15 6 17 51:53 51
12 Ingolstadt 38 13 10 15 65:56 49
13 Regensburg 38 14 7 17 54:58 49
14 VfB Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 57:69 46
15 Saarbrucken 38 10 14 14 51:57 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 65:71 43
17 TSV Havelse 38 9 8 21 57:89 35
18 Aue 38 7 13 18 51:70 34
19 Ulm 38 9 6 23 49:78 33
20 1. FC Schweinfurt 38 5 6 27 38:87 21
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)