Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulm vs RW Essen

Germany Germany

3. Liga 2025/2026 Donaustadion, Ulm
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Musel T.
Assist: Cuber Potocnik J.
6'
Brandt M.
10'
Chessa D.

AI Match Summary

The 3. Liga 2025/2026 game between Ulm and RW Essen finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward RW Essen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ulm
15%
Draws
42%
RW Essen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ulm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and RW Essen come out ahead of Ulm on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Ulm's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular 3. Liga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Ulm Clean Sheet 10%
RW Essen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulm RW Essen
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 16
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.55 2.39
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 3. Liga
Ulm vs RW Essen
2:3
Dec 20, 2025 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Ulm
3:2
Feb 17, 2024 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Ulm
0:2
Sep 24, 2023 3. Liga
Ulm vs RW Essen
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulm Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

RW Essen Compare

Top Goalscorer Musel T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Huning B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulm 34 / 100
RW Essen 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulm RW Essen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulm found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.

RW Essen let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Away concern: RW Essen has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ulm VS RW Essen
2.25 Goals Scored 2.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulm

(Home)
07 Aug
Stutt. Kickers
4 : 2
Ulm
01 Aug
Regensburg
1 : 0
Ulm
25 Jul
Ulm
0 : 4
VfB Stuttgart II
19 Jul
Ulm
3 : 1
Bayern II
14 Jul
Ulm
2 : 1
Augsburg II
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RW Essen

(Away)
01 Aug
Bayer Leverkusen
3 : 0
RW Essen
25 Jul
RW Essen
1 : 2
B. Monchengladbach
17 Jul
Ried
3 : 0
RW Essen
11 Jul
RW Essen
5 : 1
SW Essen
04 Jul
VFB Bottrop
0 : 11
RW Essen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 VfL Osnabruck 38 24 8 6 66:34 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72:51 72
3 RW Essen 38 20 10 8 78:66 70
4 Duisburg 38 19 11 8 66:49 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 74:49 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 82:48 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 76:57 64
8 Munich 1860 38 15 11 12 54:53 56
9 Wehen 38 15 8 15 54:52 53
10 Mannheim 38 15 7 16 59:72 52
11 FC Viktoria Koln 38 15 6 17 51:53 51
12 Ingolstadt 38 13 10 15 65:56 49
13 Regensburg 38 14 7 17 54:58 49
14 VfB Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 57:69 46
15 Saarbrucken 38 10 14 14 51:57 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 65:71 43
17 TSV Havelse 38 9 8 21 57:89 35
18 Aue 38 7 13 18 51:70 34
19 Ulm 38 9 6 23 49:78 33
20 1. FC Schweinfurt 38 5 6 27 38:87 21
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)