Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulm vs Verl

Germany Germany

3. Liga 2025/2026 Donaustadion, Ulm
1 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Otto F.
42' Event
Kolle N.
58'
Sub
Knost T. In: Otto Y.
Out: Knost T.

AI Match Summary

Ulm in this 3. Liga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ulm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Ulm
6%
Draws
90%
Verl
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Verl

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Verl lately — more wins on the board than Ulm.
  • Model gives Verl a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Ulm have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Ulm Clean Sheet 10%
Verl Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulm Verl
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 10 16
Draws 5 4
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 2 2.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 3. Liga
Ulm vs Verl
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 3. Liga
Verl vs Ulm
5:0
May 18, 2024 3. Liga
Ulm vs Verl
4:2
Dec 16, 2023 3. Liga
Verl vs Ulm
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulm Compare

Top Goalscorer Kolle N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Verl Compare

Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulm 10 / 100
Verl 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulm Verl

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulm's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.75 goals when they meet.

Verl's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Ulm has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ulm VS Verl
2 Goals Scored 2.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulm

(Home)
25 Jul
Ulm
0 : 4
VfB Stuttgart II
19 Jul
Ulm
3 : 1
Bayern II
14 Jul
Ulm
2 : 1
Augsburg II
10 Jul
Ulm
4 : 3
Vfb Eichstatt
05 Jul
TSV Berg
1 : 4
Ulm
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Verl

(Away)
01 Aug
RB Leipzig
4 : 0
Verl
26 Jul
Verl
6 : 1
Bremer
18 Jul
Wolfsburg
3 : 0
Verl
15 Jul
Paderborn II
0 : 1
Verl
11 Jul
Verl
9 : 0
VfB Schloss Holte 1919
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1VfL Osnabruck38248666:3480
2Energie Cottbus38219872:5172
3RW Essen382010878:6670
4Duisburg381911866:4968
5Hansa Rostock381813774:4967
6Verl3818101082:4864
7Alemannia Aachen381971276:5764
8Munich 18603815111254:5356
9Wehen381581554:5253
10Mannheim381571659:7252
11FC Viktoria Koln381561751:5351
12Ingolstadt3813101565:5649
13Regensburg381471754:5849
14VfB Stuttgart II381371857:6946
15Saarbrucken3810141451:5744
16Hoffenheim II381271965:7143
17TSV Havelse38982157:8935
18Aue387131851:7034
19Ulm38962349:7833
201. FC Schweinfurt38562738:8721
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)