Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ultramarina vs Sanjoanenses

Cape Verde Cape Verde

Campeonato Nacional 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ultramarina play Sanjoanenses in the Campeonato Nacional 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ultramarina averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. Sanjoanenses averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Ultramarina won 1, Sanjoanenses won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 24, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Ultramarina and 1.44 for Sanjoanenses. This points to a Ultramarina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Ultramarina
35%
Draws
28%
Sanjoanenses
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ultramarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Ultramarina picked up more points recently compared to Sanjoanenses.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Ultramarina Clean Sheet 16%
Sanjoanenses Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ultramarina Sanjoanenses
Matches Played 39 20
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 8
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 1.31 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.69 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2025 Campeonato Nacional
Ultramarina vs Sanjoanenses
0:0
Jun 15, 2024 Campeonato Nacional
Sanjoanenses vs Ultramarina
1:1
May 4, 2024 Campeonato Nacional
Ultramarina vs Sanjoanenses
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ultramarina 37 / 100
Sanjoanenses 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ultramarina Sanjoanenses

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ultramarina or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ultramarina attacking → ← attacking Sanjoanenses

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ultramarina scored in 72% of their last 39 games.

Sanjoanenses let in goals in 70% of their last 20 matches.

Games between these two average 1.33 goals.

Ultramarina went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sanjoanenses lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 20
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Boavista da Praia641112:313
2Palmeira63309:412
3Sanjoanenses63306:212
4Paulense63219:511
5Mindelense624012:810
6Academica Praia62226:88
7Sport Sal-Rei61235:75
8Ultramarina61233:95
9Scorpion Vermelho60245:142
10Botafogo60151:81