Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulytau vs Tobol

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Stadion Metallurg, Zhezqazghan
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Milovanovic U.
Assist: Vukcevic M.
15'
Martin D.
30'
Milovanovic U.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Ulytau and Tobol finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ulytau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Ulytau
15%
Draws
59%
Tobol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tobol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tobol come out ahead of Ulytau on wins alone.
  • Model gives Tobol a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Ulytau Clean Sheet 17%
Tobol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulytau Tobol
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Ulytau
3:1
Apr 19, 2026 Premier League
Ulytau vs Tobol
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Ulytau vs Tobol
2:2
Mar 1, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Ulytau
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulytau Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Milovanovic U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulytau 12 / 100
Tobol 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulytau Tobol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tobol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Ulytau's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ulytau has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ulytau VS Tobol
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulytau

(Home)
13 Sept
Ulytau
0 : 3
Altai
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
29 Aug
Ulytau
3 : 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
15 Aug
Kairat Almaty
3 : 1
Ulytau
08 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 1
Ulytau
Page 1 of 6

Tobol

(Away)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0
Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 25 12 6 7 38:34 42
5 Aktobe 25 12 5 8 36:29 41
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 25 8 8 9 25:29 32
9 Ulytau 25 8 7 10 22:30 31
10 Kaspij Aktau 25 7 5 13 26:36 26
11 Altai 25 6 7 12 25:34 25
12 Ertis Pavlodar 24 5 8 11 24:33 23
13 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
14 Kaisar Kyzylorda 25 4 11 10 21:32 23
15 Kyzylzhar 25 6 5 14 25:39 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 25 5 7 13 26:43 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)