Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3

UM Escobedo

4 - 1

SD Noja

Our Tip

Match Events

19'

Lindfelt C.

55'

Herreria L.

Own Goal

68'

Argos M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 game between UM Escobedo and SD Noja finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UM Escobedo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

UM Escobedo

Draws

SD Noja

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: UM Escobedo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

SD Noja haven't matched UM Escobedo's recent run of results.
Win probability leans UM Escobedo's way, sitting at 90%.
Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%

UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 20%

SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UM Escobedo	SD Noja
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	17	4
Draws	2	5
Losses	11	21
Goals Scored	1.5	0.5
Goals Conceded	1.13	3
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

UM Escobedo vs SD Noja

Possession: 40% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

4:1

Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

SD Noja vs UM Escobedo

Possession: 41% - 53% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Feb 12, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

UM Escobedo vs SD Noja

Possession: 55% - 54% Cards: 1 - 3

5:1

Oct 17, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

SD Noja vs UM Escobedo

Possession: 40% - 57% Cards: 0 - 1

3:2

Apr 14, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

SD Noja vs UM Escobedo

Possession: 43% - 45% Cards: 4 - 3

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UM Escobedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Lindfelt C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Garcia A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

SD Noja Compare

Top Goalscorer Argos M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UM Escobedo 85 / 100

SD Noja 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UM Escobedo SD Noja

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ESC Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SD Noja conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

UM Escobedo scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: UM Escobedo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UM Escobedo VS SD Noja

1.5 Goals Scored 0.5

1.13 Goals Conceded 3

63% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 75%

38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gimnastic de Torrelavega	34	26	5	3	86:15	83
2	CD Laredo	34	21	8	5	63:28	71
3	CD Tropezon	34	21	4	9	50:27	67
4	Guarnizo	34	19	9	6	47:26	66
5	UM Escobedo	34	21	2	11	65:43	65
6	Vimenor	34	17	8	9	47:36	59
7	Atletico Albericia	34	17	5	12	61:45	56
8	Cayon CD	34	17	5	12	50:41	56
9	Torina	34	15	8	11	39:40	53
10	Bezana	34	13	8	13	43:38	47
11	Castro	34	10	8	16	44:47	38
12	Selaya	34	8	8	18	32:44	32
13	SD Revilla	34	8	7	19	35:63	31
14	CD Barquereno	34	8	6	20	37:64	30
15	UC Cartes	34	6	10	18	28:52	28
16	CD Colindres	34	6	10	18	27:47	28
17	CD Montanas del Pas	34	6	8	20	35:87	26
18	SD Noja	34	4	7	23	22:68	19