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UM Escobedo vs SD Noja Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Lindfelt C.
55' Event
Herreria L.
Own Goal
68' Event
Argos M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between UM Escobedo and SD Noja finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UM Escobedo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
UM Escobedo
20%
Draws
16%
SD Noja
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UM Escobedo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • SD Noja haven't matched UM Escobedo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans UM Escobedo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 20%
SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UM Escobedo SD Noja
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 4
Draws 3 5
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.69 0.66
Goals Conceded 1.21 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.21 0.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs SD Noja
4:1
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UM Escobedo
1:1
Feb 12, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs SD Noja
5:1
Oct 17, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UM Escobedo
3:2
Apr 14, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UM Escobedo
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UM Escobedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Lindfelt C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.7
Avg xA / game 1.1

SD Noja Compare

Top Goalscorer Argos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.89
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UM Escobedo 85 / 100
SD Noja 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UM Escobedo SD Noja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UM Escobedo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SD Noja conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

UM Escobedo scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

SD Noja's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

UM Escobedo VS SD Noja
2.13 Goals Scored 0.71
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.29
75% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 57%
50% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

UM Escobedo

(Home)
26 Sept
UM Escobedo
2 : 1
Selaya
20 Sept
CD Laredo
2 : 0
UM Escobedo
12 Sept
UM Escobedo
0 : 3
Bezana
05 Sept
Torina
1 : 1
UM Escobedo
23 May
CD Laredo
3 : 1
UM Escobedo
Page 1 of 6

SD Noja

(Away)
26 Sept
Ribadesella CF
1 : 0
SD Noja
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
01 May
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
6 : 0
SD Noja
26 Apr
SD Noja
0 : 1
CD Revilla
18 Apr
Guarnizo
4 : 1
SD Noja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)