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UM Escobedo vs Velarde

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024
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Match Events

2' Event
Fontan E.
90' Event
Picon J.

AI Match Summary

UM Escobedo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UM Escobedo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
UM Escobedo
35%
Draws
46%
Velarde
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Velarde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • UM Escobedo have won more games recently than Velarde.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors UM Escobedo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 20%
Velarde Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UM Escobedo Velarde
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 3
Draws 3 9
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.65 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Velarde
2:0
Sep 9, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UM Escobedo
1:1
Mar 2, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UM Escobedo
1:4
Oct 12, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Velarde
2:1
Apr 21, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Velarde
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UM Escobedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Fontan E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Picon J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Velarde Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UM Escobedo 32 / 100
Velarde 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UM Escobedo Velarde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Velarde has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: UM Escobedo scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

UM Escobedo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

UM Escobedo VS Velarde
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UM Escobedo

(Home)
20 Sept
CD Laredo
2 : 0
UM Escobedo
12 Sept
UM Escobedo
0 : 3
Bezana
05 Sept
Torina
1 : 1
UM Escobedo
23 May
CD Laredo
3 : 1
UM Escobedo
17 May
UM Escobedo
0 : 0
CD Laredo
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Velarde

(Away)
19 Sept
Velarde
1 : 4
Vimenor
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0
Naval Reinosa
11 May
Velarde
0 : 3
Vimenor
05 May
Torina
0 : 0
Velarde
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UM Escobedo 34 21 5 8 58:30 68
2 CD Laredo 34 18 7 9 49:22 61
3 Torina 34 16 12 6 45:37 60
4 Atletico Albericia 34 17 7 10 54:37 58
5 Vimenor 34 17 6 11 43:32 57
6 CD Tropezon 34 15 11 8 49:38 56
7 Bezana 34 17 5 12 49:42 56
8 Castro 34 16 4 14 41:41 52
9 Guarnizo 34 13 9 12 37:31 48
10 CD Revilla 34 12 8 14 41:52 44
11 Naval Reinosa 34 9 16 9 39:37 43
12 CD Colindres 34 13 4 17 37:42 43
13 CD Siete Villas 34 11 9 14 50:48 42
14 UD Samano 34 11 8 15 40:44 41
15 Atletico Mineros 34 8 9 17 35:63 33
16 Solares 34 9 6 19 33:54 33
17 UC Cartes 34 8 7 19 32:50 31
18 Velarde 34 3 11 20 29:61 20
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 (Play Offs)