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Stadium Background

Umm Mughad vs Alfalah Atbra Prediction & H2H Stats

Sudan Sudan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Umm Mughad and Alfalah Atbra finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Umm Mughad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Umm Mughad
15%
Draws
0%
Alfalah Atbra
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Umm Mughad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Umm Mughad come out ahead of Alfalah Atbra on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Umm Mughad taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Umm Mughad Clean Sheet 20%
Alfalah Atbra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umm Mughad Alfalah Atbra
Matches Played 23 27
Wins 9 5
Draws 8 9
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.43 0.56
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 Premier League
Umm Mughad vs Alfalah Atbra
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umm Mughad 85 / 100
Alfalah Atbra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umm Mughad Alfalah Atbra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Umm Mughad Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Alfalah Atbra's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Umm Mughad's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 23 recent games.

Defensive concern: Alfalah Atbra conceded in 59% of 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Umm Mughad VS Alfalah Atbra
1.63 Goals Scored 0.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Umm Mughad

(Home)
09 Jun
Umm Mughad
3 : 1
Alfalah Atbra
05 Jun
Madani
3 : 1
Umm Mughad
01 Jun
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 0
Umm Mughad
28 May
Umm Mughad
2 : 1
Hilal El-Fasher
24 May
Umm Mughad
0 : 3
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Page 1 of 5

Alfalah Atbra

(Away)
09 Jun
Umm Mughad
3 : 1
Alfalah Atbra
06 Jun
Alfalah Atbra
1 : 3
Hay Al Wadi
02 Jun
Hilal El-Fasher
3 : 0
Alfalah Atbra
29 May
Al-Merreikh II
6 : 0
Alfalah Atbra
24 May
Madani
2 : 0
Alfalah Atbra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman II 7 7 0 0 16:1 21
2 Al-Merreikh II 7 6 0 1 21:4 18
3 Hilal Alsahil 7 3 2 2 10:6 11
4 Madani 7 3 2 2 13:11 11
5 Umm Mughad 7 3 0 4 10:15 9
6 Hilal El-Fasher 7 1 2 4 4:7 5
7 Hay Al Wadi 7 1 2 4 6:14 5
8 Alfalah Atbra 7 0 0 7 2:24 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)