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Stadium Background

Umm Mughad vs Hilal El-Fasher Prediction & H2H Stats

Sudan Sudan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Umm Mughad and Hilal El-Fasher finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Umm Mughad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Umm Mughad
15%
Draws
34%
Hilal El-Fasher
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Umm Mughad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Umm Mughad's 1.43 goals per match outpaces what Hilal El-Fasher have produced (1.03).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Umm Mughad Clean Sheet 20%
Hilal El-Fasher Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umm Mughad Hilal El-Fasher
Matches Played 23 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.43 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Premier League
Umm Mughad vs Hilal El-Fasher
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umm Mughad 32 / 100
Hilal El-Fasher 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umm Mughad Hilal El-Fasher

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hilal El-Fasher Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Umm Mughad found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (23 games).

Hilal El-Fasher has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Hilal El-Fasher's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Umm Mughad VS Hilal El-Fasher
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Umm Mughad

(Home)
09 Jun
Umm Mughad
3 : 1
Alfalah Atbra
05 Jun
Madani
3 : 1
Umm Mughad
01 Jun
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 0
Umm Mughad
28 May
Umm Mughad
2 : 1
Hilal El-Fasher
24 May
Umm Mughad
0 : 3
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Page 1 of 5

Hilal El-Fasher

(Away)
09 Jun
Hilal El-Fasher
0 : 0
Hay Al Wadi
05 Jun
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1 : 0
Hilal El-Fasher
02 Jun
Hilal El-Fasher
3 : 0
Alfalah Atbra
28 May
Umm Mughad
2 : 1
Hilal El-Fasher
23 May
Al-Merreikh II
2 : 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman II 7 7 0 0 16:1 21
2 Al-Merreikh II 7 6 0 1 21:4 18
3 Hilal Alsahil 7 3 2 2 10:6 11
4 Madani 7 3 2 2 13:11 11
5 Umm Mughad 7 3 0 4 10:15 9
6 Hilal El-Fasher 7 1 2 4 4:7 5
7 Hay Al Wadi 7 1 2 4 6:14 5
8 Alfalah Atbra 7 0 0 7 2:24 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)