Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Umm-Salal vs Al Bidda

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

57'
Sub
Hassan M. In: Al Balushi A.
Out: Hassan M.
61'
Hussein Athab S.
64'
Sub
Jarrar Y. In: Cristo
Out: Jarrar Y.

AI Match Summary

Umm-Salal in this QSL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Umm-Salal
20%
Draws
57%
Al Bidda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Bidda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Umm-Salal average 1.77 goals a game right now, well clear of Al Bidda's 1.31.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Al Bidda taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Umm-Salal, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 20%
Al Bidda Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umm-Salal Al Bidda
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.77 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.47 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 QSL Cup
Umm-Salal vs Al Bidda
2:0
May 7, 2024 Emir Cup
Umm-Salal vs Al Bidda
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mance A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cristo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Bidda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umm-Salal 10 / 100
Al Bidda 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umm-Salal Al Bidda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Bidda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Umm-Salal found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Al Bidda has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Umm-Salal has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Umm-Salal VS Al Bidda
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Umm-Salal

(Home)
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Umm-Salal
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

Al Bidda

(Away)
08 Sept
Shamal 2
0 : 3
Al Bidda
31 Aug
Al Bidda
2 : 0
Qatar U23
23 Aug
Al Bidda
1 : 1
Al-Gharafa 2
30 Apr
Lusail
1 : 2
Al Bidda
25 Apr
Al Khor
2 : 1
Al Bidda
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Al Rayyan -
TBD -
Al-Shahaniya 1
Shamal 0
Umm-Salal -
TBD -
Al Sailiya 1
Al Bidda 3
Muaither SC 2
Al-Kharitiyath 0
Al Markhiya 2
Al Khor 1
Al Arabi (Qatar) 3
Qatar SC 2
Al-Waab 3
Al Mesaimeer 1
Quarter-finals
Al Rayyan 3
Al-Shahaniya 0
Umm-Salal 2
Al Bidda 0
Muaither SC 3
Al Markhiya 2
Al Arabi (Qatar) 3
Al-Waab 1
Semi-finals
Al Rayyan 4
Umm-Salal 3
Muaither SC 4
Al Arabi (Qatar) 3
Final
Al Rayyan 2
Muaither SC 0