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UNAN-Managua vs Esteli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Lemus F.
77'
Guerrero J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera game between UNAN-Managua and Esteli finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UNAN-Managua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
UNAN-Managua
20%
Draws
38%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UNAN-Managua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Esteli come out ahead of UNAN-Managua on wins alone.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Esteli taking it.
  • Regular Liga Primera form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
UNAN-Managua Clean Sheet 23%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UNAN-Managua Esteli
Matches Played 29 36
Wins 11 22
Draws 6 8
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.21 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.45 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2026 Liga Primera
UNAN-Managua vs Esteli
1:0
Jul 18, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs UNAN-Managua
1:1
Mar 2, 2026 Liga Primera
UNAN-Managua vs Esteli
0:3
Jan 25, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs UNAN-Managua
6:3
Sep 28, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs UNAN-Managua
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UNAN-Managua Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemus F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Esteli Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UNAN-Managua 21 / 100
Esteli 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UNAN-Managua Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UNAN-Managua's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

UNAN-Managua went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Esteli conceded in 56% of 36 recent games.

Scoring Trends

UNAN-Managua VS Esteli
1 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

UNAN-Managua

(Home)
06 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 3
UNAN-Managua
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
31 Aug
UNAN-Managua
0 : 2
Managua FC
24 Aug
Walter Ferreti
0 : 1
UNAN-Managua
17 Aug
UNAN-Managua
2 : 1
Jalapa
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 10 8 2 0 33:10 26
2 Diriangen 10 8 2 0 22:7 26
3 UNAN-Managua 10 6 2 2 12:7 20
4 Esteli 10 5 3 2 17:7 18
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 10 3 1 6 9:16 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 10 2 2 6 14:18 8
9 Jalapa 10 1 2 7 6:16 5
10 Rancho Santana 10 1 2 7 8:20 5
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)