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Unia Swarzedz vs Victoria Wrzesnia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Unia Swarzedz host Victoria Wrzesnia in the III Liga - Group II. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Unia Swarzedz have averaged 1.94 scored and 1.39 conceded recently, against Victoria Wrzesnia's 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded. Past meetings favor Unia Swarzedz slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 13, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (2.13 - 1.38) back Unia Swarzedz to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Unia Swarzedz
35%
Draws
32%
Victoria Wrzesnia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Unia Swarzedz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Unia Swarzedz a 33% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Unia Swarzedz Clean Sheet 17%
Victoria Wrzesnia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Unia Swarzedz Victoria Wrzesnia
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 17 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.94 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Unia Swarzedz vs Victoria Wrzesnia
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Victoria Wrzesnia vs Unia Swarzedz
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Unia Swarzedz 66 / 100
Victoria Wrzesnia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Unia Swarzedz Victoria Wrzesnia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Unia Swarzedz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Unia Swarzedz's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Victoria Wrzesnia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Unia Swarzedz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Unia Swarzedz VS Victoria Wrzesnia
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Unia Swarzedz

(Home)
10 Oct
Baltyk Koszalin
1 : 1
Unia Swarzedz
03 Oct
Unia Swarzedz
7 : 0
Kotwica Kornik
26 Sept
Swinoujscie
0 : 2
Unia Swarzedz
19 Sept
Unia Swarzedz
1 : 3
Luzino
11 Sept
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
4 : 3
Unia Swarzedz
Page 1 of 7

Victoria Wrzesnia

(Away)
10 Oct
Victoria Wrzesnia
1 : 0
Grom Nowy Staw
03 Oct
Gedania Gdansk
0 : 0
Victoria Wrzesnia
26 Sept
Victoria Wrzesnia
1 : 1
Lipno Steszew
19 Sept
Blekitni Stargard
1 : 1
Victoria Wrzesnia
12 Sept
Victoria Wrzesnia
2 : 2
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 12 9 3 0 35:16 30
2 Luzino 12 9 1 2 34:13 28
3 Kluczevia Stargard 11 6 1 4 19:18 19
4 Blekitni Stargard 12 5 3 4 30:23 18
5 Lech Poznan II 10 5 3 2 21:17 18
6 Wda Swiecie 11 5 3 3 15:17 18
7 Notec Czarnkow 12 5 2 5 19:16 17
8 KKS Kalisz 12 4 5 3 18:19 17
9 Baltyk Koszalin 12 4 4 4 16:16 16
10 Unia Swarzedz 12 4 2 6 21:20 14
11 Gedania Gdansk 12 3 5 4 26:26 14
12 Swinoujscie 12 4 2 6 15:21 14
13 Grom Nowy Staw 12 4 1 7 28:29 13
14 Elana Torun 12 3 4 5 17:22 13
15 Chemik Bydgoszcz 12 2 6 4 19:24 12
16 Victoria Wrzesnia 12 2 5 5 12:23 11
17 Kotwica Kornik 12 3 2 7 19:33 11
18 Lipno Steszew 12 2 2 8 15:26 8
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)