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Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2022/2023

LKS Lagow

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This III Liga - Group IV 2022/2023 encounter between Unia Tarnow and LKS Lagow promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Unia Tarnow averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded in recent matches. LKS Lagow shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Unia Tarnow, 0 wins for LKS Lagow, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 03.06.23 ended in a 3:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.97 for Unia Tarnow and 2.44 for LKS Lagow, suggesting the primary value lies in the LKS Lagow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Unia Tarnow

23%

Draws

47%

LKS Lagow

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: LKS Lagow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Unia Tarnow picked up more points recently compared to LKS Lagow.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 2.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 86%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 47%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Unia Tarnow Clean Sheet 10%

LKS Lagow Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Unia Tarnow	LKS Lagow
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	3	10
Draws	4	2
Losses	22	18
Goals Scored	0.83	0.8
Goals Conceded	2.83	2.07

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

03.06.23 III Liga - Group IV

Unia Tarnow vs LKS Lagow

Possession: 49% - 46% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

06.11.22 III Liga - Group IV

LKS Lagow vs Unia Tarnow

Possession: 52% - 52% Cards: 0 - 2

0:0

26.03.22 III Liga - Group IV

Unia Tarnow vs LKS Lagow

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 4 - 0

0:0

22.08.21 III Liga - Group IV

LKS Lagow vs Unia Tarnow

Possession: 51% - 43% Cards: 2 - 1

3:5

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Unia Tarnow

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

LKS Lagow

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Unia Tarnow 29 / 100

LKS Lagow 45 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Unia Tarnow LKS Lagow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: LKS Lagow or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.4%

1.39

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Unia Tarnow 33%

LKS Lagow 38%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Unia Tarnow 29%

LKS Lagow 49%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Unia Tarnow 30%

LKS Lagow 47%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Unia Tarnow 32%

LKS Lagow 45%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Unia Tarnow 27%

LKS Lagow 52%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Unia Tarnow 35%

LKS Lagow 54%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Unia Tarnow attacking → ← attacking LKS Lagow

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Unia Tarnow have found the net in 48% of their last 29 matches.

LKS Lagow have conceded at least one goal in 80% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.75 goals per match.

Unia Tarnow remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

LKS Lagow suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

13 Points in last 5 32

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

3.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stal Stalowa Wola	34	23	5	6	72:27	74
2	Avia Swidnik	34	19	11	4	58:26	68
3	KS Wieczysta Krakow	34	20	7	7	75:35	67
4	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	17	7	10	61:36	58
5	Biala Podlaska	34	14	13	7	63:42	55
6	Cracovia II	34	16	6	12	69:48	54
7	Wisloka Debica	34	15	7	12	54:46	52
8	Sokol Sieniawa	34	14	6	14	57:65	48
9	Czarni Polaniec	34	15	2	17	47:58	47
10	Podhale Nowy Targ	34	13	6	15	59:47	45
11	Orleta Radzyn	34	13	4	17	44:63	43
12	Chelmianka Chelm	34	10	10	14	45:47	40
13	Unia Tarnow	34	10	10	14	43:66	40
14	Wiazownica	34	11	7	16	49:59	40
15	Korona Kielce II	34	10	9	15	63:58	39
16	Sandomierz	34	7	6	21	40:91	27
17	Lublinianka	34	7	2	25	43:92	23
18	LKS Lagow	34	11	4	19	27:63	37