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Unia Tarnow vs Podhale Nowy Targ

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Unia Tarnow play Podhale Nowy Targ in the III Liga - Group IV 2024/2025. Podhale Nowy Targ are favorites here. Recently, Unia Tarnow averaged 0.78 goals scored and 3.04 conceded. Podhale Nowy Targ averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Unia Tarnow won 2, Podhale Nowy Targ won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 30, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Unia Tarnow and 2.00 for Podhale Nowy Targ. This points to a Podhale Nowy Targ double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Unia Tarnow
16%
Draws
68%
Podhale Nowy Targ
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Podhale Nowy Targ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence
  • Unia Tarnow picked up more points recently compared to Podhale Nowy Targ.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Unia Tarnow Clean Sheet 10%
Podhale Nowy Targ Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Unia Tarnow Podhale Nowy Targ
Matches Played 27 34
Wins 2 15
Draws 3 10
Losses 22 9
Goals Scored 0.78 1.71
Goals Conceded 3.04 1.21
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Unia Tarnow vs Podhale Nowy Targ
1:2
Nov 9, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Podhale Nowy Targ vs Unia Tarnow
3:0
May 4, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Podhale Nowy Targ vs Unia Tarnow
2:1
Oct 7, 2023 III Liga - Group IV
Unia Tarnow vs Podhale Nowy Targ
2:1
May 27, 2023 III Liga - Group IV
Podhale Nowy Targ vs Unia Tarnow
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Unia Tarnow Compare

Top Goalscorer Sowa B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Podhale Nowy Targ Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Unia Tarnow 16 / 100
Podhale Nowy Targ 63 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Unia Tarnow Podhale Nowy Targ

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Podhale Nowy Targ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Podhale Nowy Targ & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +100%
12.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Unia Tarnow attacking → ← attacking Podhale Nowy Targ

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Unia Tarnow scored in 48% of their last 27 games.

Podhale Nowy Targ let in goals in 71% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Unia Tarnow went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Podhale Nowy Targ lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 55
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sandecja Nowy S.34228465:3174
2Podhale Nowy Targ34215867:4368
3Siarka Tarnobrzeg34205976:4265
4Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski34196955:4063
5Avia Swidnik34188877:4462
6Korona Kielce II341710771:5061
7Star Starachowice341671161:4655
8Biala Podlaska341581159:4253
9Chelmianka Chelm341651374:6253
10Wisloka Debica341441661:5546
11Czarni Polaniec341181552:6441
12Wisla II341181572:6041
13Swidniczanka Swidnik341091544:5439
14Wislanie Skawina341091541:6039
15Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow341071750:6837
16Wiazownica34791838:7030
17Lewart Lubartow34542531:8519
18Unia Tarnow34242828:10610