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Uniao Carmolandense vs Capital FC

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uniao Carmolandense play Capital FC in the Tocantinense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uniao Carmolandense averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Capital FC averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Uniao Carmolandense won 3, Capital FC won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 14, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Uniao Carmolandense and 1.06 for Capital FC. This points to a Uniao Carmolandense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Uniao Carmolandense
22%
Draws
29%
Capital FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Uniao Carmolandense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Uniao Carmolandense picked up more points recently compared to Capital FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Uniao Carmolandense Clean Sheet 22%
Capital FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Carmolandense Capital FC
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.19 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Uniao Carmolandense
3:2
Feb 5, 2025 Tocantinense
Uniao Carmolandense vs Capital FC
1:0
Mar 10, 2024 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Uniao Carmolandense
1:4
Jan 28, 2023 Tocantinense
Uniao Carmolandense vs Capital FC
1:1
Jan 29, 2022 Tocantinense
Uniao Carmolandense vs Capital FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Carmolandense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Vinicius
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Capital FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Carmolandense 49 / 100
Capital FC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Carmolandense Capital FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uniao Carmolandense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uniao Carmolandense attacking → ← attacking Capital FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Carmolandense scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

Capital FC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Uniao Carmolandense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Capital FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 32
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tocantinopolis751115:616
2Capital FC75028:415
3Araguaina73139:710
4Gurupi72419:510
5Uniao Carmolandense73137:127
6Bela Vista-TO72147:117
7Batalhao713312:116
8Tocantins71154:154