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Uniao Da Serra vs Naval 1893 Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
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Match Events

25' Event
Matos P.
Own Goal
90' Event
Marques D.

AI Match Summary

Uniao Da Serra in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Uniao Da Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Uniao Da Serra
20%
Draws
36%
Naval 1893
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uniao Da Serra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Naval 1893 have won more games recently than Uniao Da Serra.
  • Model gives Uniao Da Serra a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Uniao Da Serra have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Uniao Da Serra Clean Sheet 68%
Naval 1893 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Da Serra Naval 1893
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.45 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs Uniao Da Serra
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao Da Serra vs Naval 1893
2:0
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs Uniao Da Serra
3:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Da Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Marques D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Naval 1893 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Da Serra 68 / 100
Naval 1893 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Da Serra Naval 1893

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uniao Da Serra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.33 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Uniao Da Serra stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Uniao Da Serra found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Naval 1893 has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Da Serra VS Naval 1893
2 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Da Serra

(Home)
20 Sept
Amora
3 : 4
Uniao Da Serra
13 Sept
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 1
Mortagua FC
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
5 : 0
Uniao de Pombal
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
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Naval 1893

(Away)
19 Sept
Naval 1893
0 : 2
FC Felgueiras
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 0
Naval 1893
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)