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Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2021/2022

SC Espinho

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2021/2022 encounter between Uniao de Coimbra and SC Espinho promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Uniao de Coimbra averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in recent matches. SC Espinho shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Uniao de Coimbra, 2 wins for SC Espinho, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 13.02.22 ended in a 0:5 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.78 for Uniao de Coimbra and 2.44 for SC Espinho, suggesting the primary value lies in the SC Espinho double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%

Uniao de Coimbra

23%

Draws

52%

SC Espinho

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: SC Espinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

Uniao de Coimbra picked up more points recently compared to SC Espinho.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.78 vs 2.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Uniao de Coimbra Clean Sheet 10%

SC Espinho Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Uniao de Coimbra	SC Espinho
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	8	14
Draws	7	7
Losses	17	9
Goals Scored	0.97	1.27
Goals Conceded	1.78	0.73
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.88	0.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

13.02.22 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Uniao de Coimbra vs SC Espinho

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

0:5

28.11.21 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

SC Espinho vs Uniao de Coimbra

Possession: 46% - 49% Cards: 3 - 2

2:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Uniao de Coimbra

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

SC Espinho

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao de Coimbra 25 / 100

SC Espinho 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Uniao de Coimbra SC Espinho

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: SC Espinho or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +47%

5.88

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

SC Espinho will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Uniao de Coimbra 28%

SC Espinho 42%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Uniao de Coimbra will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize SC Espinho's early runs.

Uniao de Coimbra 24%

SC Espinho 55%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect SC Espinho to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Uniao de Coimbra tries to push forward.

Uniao de Coimbra 25%

SC Espinho 52%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see SC Espinho increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Uniao de Coimbra 26%

SC Espinho 49%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Uniao de Coimbra's defense, opening up opportunities for SC Espinho's forward line.

Uniao de Coimbra 23%

SC Espinho 57%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect SC Espinho to manage the closing stages, while Uniao de Coimbra searches for late drama.

Uniao de Coimbra 29%

SC Espinho 60%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uniao de Coimbra attacking → ← attacking SC Espinho

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao de Coimbra have found the net in 66% of their last 32 matches.

SC Espinho have conceded at least one goal in 57% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.50 goals per match.

Uniao de Coimbra remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

SC Espinho suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 49

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.67

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Salgueiros	18	13	4	1	29:14	43
2	Leca	18	12	3	3	36:15	39
3	Gondomar	18	10	3	5	34:19	33
4	Castro Daire	18	9	5	4	25:15	32
5	SC Espinho	18	8	5	5	24:13	29
6	Santa Cruz Alvarenga	18	5	5	8	13:16	20
7	Valadares Gaia FC	18	5	5	8	22:20	20
8	Uniao de Coimbra	18	4	4	10	17:29	16
9	Ferreira de Aves	18	3	3	12	6:35	12
10	CD Gouveia	18	1	3	14	8:38	6