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Uniao Sao Joao vs Gremio Prudente - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista Estádio Hermínio Ometto, Araras
Uniao Sao Joao Logo

Uniao Sao Joao

2 - 1
FT
Gremio Prudente Logo

Gremio Prudente

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Ruan Marcos
29'
Fernando Brito
34'
Sub
Rafael Costa In: Bruno Menezes
Out: Rafael Costa
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Uniao Sao Joao
35%
Draws
31%
Gremio Prudente
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Uniao Sao Joao come out ahead of Gremio Prudente on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Gremio Prudente's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Uniao Sao Joao have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Uniao Sao Joao, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Uniao Sao Joao Clean Sheet 18%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Sao Joao Gremio Prudente
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 10 9
Draws 12 13
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Copa Paulista
Uniao Sao Joao vs Gremio Prudente
2:1
Sep 26, 2026 Copa Paulista
Gremio Prudente vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0
Mar 23, 2024 Paulista A3
Gremio Prudente vs Uniao Sao Joao
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Sao Joao Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruninho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leo Souza
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gremio Prudente Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Cristian
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Sao Joao 28 / 100
Gremio Prudente 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Sao Joao Gremio Prudente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Prudente Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Sao Joao's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Uniao Sao Joao remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Gremio Prudente conceded in 59% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Sao Joao VS Gremio Prudente
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Sao Joao

(Home)
11 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Sao Jose EC
03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Gremio Prudente
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
21 Sept
Juventus-SP
1 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
12 Sept
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 0
Juventus-SP
Page 1 of 7

Gremio Prudente

(Away)
03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Gremio Prudente
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
20 Sept
Linense
1 : 2
Gremio Prudente
15 Sept
Gremio Prudente
2 : 2
Linense
07 Sept
Paulista
2 : 3
Gremio Prudente
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Sao Jose EC -
TBD -
EC Sao Bernardo 2
Comercial 3
Noroeste -
TBD -
Primavera EC 12
Sao Caetano 0
Linense -
TBD -
Paulista 2
Gremio Prudente 7
Juventus-SP -
TBD -
Bandeirante 3
Uniao Sao Joao 4
Quarter-finals
Sao Jose EC 3
Comercial 0
Noroeste 3
Primavera EC 2
Linense 3
Gremio Prudente 4
Juventus-SP 1
Uniao Sao Joao 2
Semi-finals
Sao Jose EC 2
Noroeste 1
Gremio Prudente 1
Uniao Sao Joao 2
Final
Sao Jose EC 1
Uniao Sao Joao 1