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Stadium Background

Union Berlin vs Elversberg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Union Berlin host Elversberg in the Bundesliga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Elversberg have shipped 1.39 goals a game lately, while Union Berlin have conceded 2 and scored 1.71. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 2.44, favoring Elversberg. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Union Berlin
20%
Draws
61%
Elversberg
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Elversberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Elversberg lately — more wins on the board than Union Berlin.
  • Win probability leans Elversberg's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Union Berlin Clean Sheet 10%
Elversberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Berlin Elversberg
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 8 16
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 1.71 2.29
Goals Conceded 2 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Berlin 10 / 100
Elversberg 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Berlin Elversberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elversberg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Berlin found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).

Elversberg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Union Berlin remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Union Berlin VS Elversberg
2.13 Goals Scored 2.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Berlin

(Home)
11 Sept
Union Berlin
1 : 3
Schalke
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0
Union Berlin
29 Aug
Union Berlin
3 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
23 Aug
Braunschweig
2 : 4
Union Berlin
15 Aug
Union Berlin
2 : 4
Ipswich
Page 1 of 7

Elversberg

(Away)
05 Sept
B. Monchengladbach
3 : 4
Elversberg
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Duisburg
1 : 3
Elversberg
15 Aug
Elversberg
4 : 1
Lorient
08 Aug
Mallorca
1 : 1
Elversberg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Freiburg 3 3 0 0 10:1 9
2 Dortmund 3 3 0 0 8:2 9
3 Augsburg 3 2 1 0 9:3 7
4 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 7:5 6
5 Bayern Munich 2 1 1 0 5:1 4
6 Bayer Leverkusen 3 1 1 1 8:5 4
7 Mainz 3 1 1 1 6:3 4
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 3 1 1 1 7:8 4
9 Werder Bremen 3 1 1 1 5:6 4
10 Schalke 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
11 1. FC Koln 3 1 1 1 5:7 4
12 RB Leipzig 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
13 Hoffenheim 3 1 0 2 6:7 3
14 VfB Stuttgart 3 1 0 2 6:8 3
15 Paderborn 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
16 Union Berlin 3 0 1 2 4:10 1
17 Hamburger 2 0 0 2 0:7 0
18 B. Monchengladbach 3 0 0 3 3:12 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)