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Stadium Background

Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
De Maria V.
27'
Milani L.
27'
Mercati A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A game between Union Brescia and Desenzano Calvina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Brescia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Union Brescia
35%
Draws
31%
Desenzano Calvina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Desenzano Calvina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on Union Brescia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Union Brescia Clean Sheet 68%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Brescia Desenzano Calvina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 12 10
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 1.4 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Brescia Compare

Top Goalscorer De Maria V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Brescia 77 / 100
Desenzano Calvina 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Brescia Desenzano Calvina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Brescia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Brescia has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Union Brescia found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Desenzano Calvina conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Union Brescia VS Desenzano Calvina
2.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Brescia

(Home)
09 Oct
Union Brescia
2 : 0
Pro Vercelli
04 Oct
Lecco
2 : 2
Union Brescia
27 Sept
Union Brescia
1 : 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
20 Sept
Alcione Milano
0 : 4
Union Brescia
17 Sept
Union Brescia
2 : 2
Treviso
Page 1 of 6

Desenzano Calvina

(Away)
10 Oct
Desenzano Calvina
2 : 0
Dolomiti Bellunesi
03 Oct
Folgore Caratese
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0
Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3
Lecco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 8 7 0 1 14:4 21
2 Union Brescia 9 5 4 0 16:6 19
3 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 14:6 15
4 Arzignano 8 4 2 2 12:9 14
5 Trento 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
6 Treviso 8 3 4 1 8:6 13
7 AlbinoLeffe 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
8 Alcione Milano 8 2 5 1 12:13 11
9 Dolomiti Bellunesi 8 2 4 2 7:7 10
10 Desenzano Calvina 8 2 4 2 6:7 10
11 Novara 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
12 Pro Vercelli 9 2 3 4 8:13 9
13 Lecco 8 2 3 3 6:8 9
14 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
15 Pergolettese 8 1 5 2 3:5 8
16 Carpi 8 1 3 4 10:17 6
17 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 9:12 6
18 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 7:13 6
19 Giana Erminio 8 0 4 4 6:10 4
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)