Sport Picks
Union Comercio vs U. San Martin
Peru
Liga 2 Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia, Tarapoto 
Match Events
7'
7'
Delgado G.
16'
16'
Palacios M.
46'
46'
Sub
Delgado G. In: Ayala J.
Out: Delgado G.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 2 game between Union Comercio and U. San Martin finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Comercio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Union Comercio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Union Comercio carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Union Comercio's way, sitting at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 68%
U. San Martin Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Union Comercio | U. San Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 8 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.72 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs U. San Martin
1:0
May 23, 2026 Liga 2
U. San Martin vs Union Comercio
0:1
Jun 1, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs U. San Martin
1:2
Apr 12, 2025 Liga 2
U. San Martin vs Union Comercio
1:1
Aug 31, 2019 Liga 1
U. San Martin vs Union Comercio
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Union Comercio Compare
Top Goalscorer Palacios M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
U. San Martin Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Union Comercio 68 / 100
U. San Martin 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Union Comercio U. San Martin
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Union Comercio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Union Comercio went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Union Comercio scored in 75% of their last 32 games.
Defensive concern: U. San Martin conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Scoring Trends
Union Comercio VS U. San Martin
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Union Comercio
(Home) 06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0 U. San Martin
30 Aug
Llacuabamba
1 : 1 Union Comercio
23 Aug
Union Comercio
0 : 0 Carlos Mannucci
17 Aug
Pirata
1 : 2 Union Comercio
07 Aug
Union Comercio
4 : 0 AD Cantolao
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0 U. San Martin
23 Aug
Union Comercio
0 : 0 Carlos Mannucci
07 Aug
Union Comercio
4 : 0 AD Cantolao
20 Jun
Union Comercio
0 : 1 Comerciantes FC
31 May
Union Comercio
1 : 0 ADA Jaen
Page 1 of 4
U. San Martin
(Away) 06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0 U. San Martin
29 Aug
U. San Martin
2 : 0 Cesar Vallejo
16 Aug
U. San Martin
3 : 1 ADA Jaen
01 Aug
Llacuabamba
3 : 0 U. San Martin
25 Jul
U. San Martin
2 : 0 Carlos Mannucci
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0 U. San Martin
01 Aug
Llacuabamba
3 : 0 U. San Martin
20 Jul
Pirata
3 : 2 U. San Martin
20 Jun
AD Cantolao
4 : 3 U. San Martin
31 May
AD Cantolao
0 : 4 U. San Martin
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 16:4 | 29 |
| 2 | Carlos Mannucci | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 19:12 | 27 |
| 3 | Llacuabamba | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20:10 | 24 |
| 4 | Pirata | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22:20 | 21 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18:15 | 17 |
| 6 | Cesar Vallejo | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11:13 | 16 |
| 7 | ADA Jaen | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 10:12 | 15 |
| 8 | AD Cantolao | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14:28 | 10 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1:17 | 0 |
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 2 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tacna Heroica | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:12 | 28 |
| 2 | Comerciantes FC | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:15 | 26 |
| 3 | Union Minas | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 23:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20:13 | 22 |
| 5 | Santos FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 6 | Alianza Huanuco | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18:18 | 20 |
| 7 | Ayacucho | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19:19 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:20 | 16 |
| 9 | Binacional | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10:49 | 9 |
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 2 (Relegation Group)
