Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Union de Santa Fe vs Independiente Prediction & H2H Stats

Argentina Argentina

Liga Profesional Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
Union de Santa Fe Logo

Union de Santa Fe

1 - 2
FT
Independiente Logo

Independiente

Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Menossi L.
21'
Sub
Avila C. In: Morales I.
Out: Avila C.
37'
Godoy L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Profesional game between Union de Santa Fe and Independiente finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Union de Santa Fe
15%
Draws
46%
Independiente
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independiente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independiente come out ahead of Union de Santa Fe on wins alone.
  • Union de Santa Fe are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Profesional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Union de Santa Fe Clean Sheet 68%
Independiente Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union de Santa Fe Independiente
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga Profesional
Union de Santa Fe vs Independiente
1:2
May 22, 2026 Copa Argentina
Union de Santa Fe vs Independiente
0:2
Mar 10, 2026 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs Union de Santa Fe
4:4
Nov 6, 2024 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs Union de Santa Fe
3:0
Jun 24, 2023 Liga Profesional
Union de Santa Fe vs Independiente
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union de Santa Fe Compare

Top Goalscorer Estigarribia M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Independiente Compare

Top Goalscorer Montiel S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Meza M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union de Santa Fe 50 / 100
Independiente 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union de Santa Fe Independiente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union de Santa Fe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Union de Santa Fe found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Independiente let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Union de Santa Fe remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Union de Santa Fe VS Independiente
1.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Union de Santa Fe

(Home)
03 Oct
Boca Juniors
3 : 0
Union de Santa Fe
19 Sept
Union de Santa Fe
1 : 2
Independiente
12 Sept
Talleres Cordoba
2 : 1
Union de Santa Fe
08 Sept
Union de Santa Fe
3 : 2
Instituto
28 Aug
Union de Santa Fe
4 : 1
Sarmiento Junin
Page 1 of 6

Independiente

(Away)
02 Oct
Independiente
1 : 4
Instituto
19 Sept
Union de Santa Fe
1 : 2
Independiente
13 Sept
Independiente
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero)
0 : 1
Independiente
30 Aug
Independiente
0 : 3
Gimnasia Mendoza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Instituto 11 8 1 2 17:8 25
2 Defensa y Justicia 11 6 3 2 16:11 21
3 Boca Juniors 11 5 5 1 17:11 20
4 Velez Sarsfield 10 5 5 0 15:9 20
5 Gimnasia Mendoza 10 5 2 3 14:9 17
6 Lanus 11 5 2 4 13:9 17
7 Newells Old Boys 11 4 5 2 11:8 17
8 Independiente 11 5 2 4 11:12 17
9 Union de Santa Fe 11 4 1 6 17:19 13
10 San Lorenzo 11 3 2 6 4:11 11
11 Estudiantes L.P. 10 3 1 6 10:11 10
12 Deportivo Riestra 10 2 4 4 8:10 10
13 Platense 10 2 3 5 9:15 9
14 Talleres Cordoba 10 2 2 6 11:17 8
15 Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero) 10 2 2 6 7:13 8
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentinos Jrs 10 5 3 2 13:9 18
2 Rosario Central 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Ind. Rivadavia 11 5 3 3 15:14 18
4 Gimnasia L.P. 11 5 3 3 16:16 18
5 CA Belgrano de Cordoba 10 4 4 2 11:7 16
6 Huracan 10 4 4 2 10:8 16
7 Sarmiento Junin 10 5 1 4 17:16 16
8 Barracas Central 11 4 3 4 8:9 15
9 River Plate 10 4 1 5 13:12 13
10 Atl. Tucuman 11 3 4 4 9:9 13
11 Tigre 10 3 3 4 9:9 12
12 Banfield 10 2 3 5 11:16 9
13 Aldosivi 10 2 2 6 12:16 8
14 Racing Club 10 2 2 6 11:16 8
15 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 10 1 3 6 5:13 6
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)