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Stadium Background

Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta
Union Magdalena Logo

Union Magdalena

1 - 1
FT
Santa Fe Logo

Santa Fe

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Molina F.
52' Event
Portocarrero C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Union Magdalena
35%
Draws
34%
Santa Fe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Santa Fe lately — more wins on the board than Union Magdalena.
  • Model gives Union Magdalena a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Santa Fe arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Fe, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Union Magdalena Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Fe Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Magdalena Santa Fe
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 4
Goals Scored 1.32 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.04 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Copa Colombia
Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe
1:1
Aug 6, 2026 Copa Colombia
Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena
2:0
Sep 14, 2025 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Primera A
Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe
0:1
Aug 19, 2023 Primera A
Union Magdalena vs Santa Fe
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Magdalena Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Santa Fe Compare

Top Goalscorer Portocarrero C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Magdalena 36 / 100
Santa Fe 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Magdalena Santa Fe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Union Magdalena stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Union Magdalena scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Santa Fe conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Union Magdalena VS Santa Fe
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Magdalena

(Home)
07 Oct
Boca Juniors de Cali
1 : 1
Union Magdalena
03 Oct
Real Santander
1 : 3
Union Magdalena
29 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Cartagena
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
18 Sept
Patriotas
1 : 2
Union Magdalena
Page 1 of 6

Santa Fe

(Away)
06 Oct
Ind. Medellin
0 : 1
Santa Fe
29 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 2
Santa Fe
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
23 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 1
Dep. Cali
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4
Santa Fe
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Atl. Nacional 4
Tigres Futbol Club 0
Junior 5
Barranquilla 6
Dep. Pasto 3
Bogota 1
America De Cali 3
Cartagena 2
Once Caldas 6
Envigado 0
Deportes Tolima 3
Quindio 4
Santa Fe 3
Union Magdalena 1
Inter Bogotá 3
Inter Palmira 1