Sport Picks
Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Peru
Liga 1 Estadio Monumental, Lima 
Match Events
16'
16'
Fara C.
20'
20'
Escobar J.
39'
39'
Cuesta B.
Assist: Quagliata N.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Universitario de Deportes
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Universitario de Deportes lately — more wins on the board than FBC Melgar.
- 31% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Universitario de Deportes Clean Sheet 14%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Universitario de Deportes | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.41 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
2:1
Jan 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar
3:2
Sep 14, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
1:2
Apr 14, 2025 Liga 1
Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar
4:1
Aug 1, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Universitario de Deportes Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
FBC Melgar Compare
Top Goalscorer Cuesta B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Universitario de Deportes 31 / 100
FBC Melgar 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Universitario de Deportes FBC Melgar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FBC Melgar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Universitario de Deportes scored in 66% of their last 32 games.
FBC Melgar has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Solid form: Universitario de Deportes remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Universitario de Deportes VS FBC Melgar
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Universitario de Deportes
(Home) 19 Sept
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 0 Universitario de Deportes
13 Sept
A. Lima
1 : 2 Universitario de Deportes
06 Sept
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 2 Comerciantes Unidos
29 Aug
Cajamarca
2 : 4 Universitario de Deportes
23 Aug
Universitario de Deportes
3 : 0 Los Chankas
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 2 Comerciantes Unidos
23 Aug
Universitario de Deportes
3 : 0 Los Chankas
08 Aug
Universitario de Deportes
1 : 1 Sporting Cristal
25 Jul
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 1 Cusco
11 Jul
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 0 Millonarios
Page 1 of 4
FBC Melgar
(Away) 20 Sept
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 Sport Boys
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1 FBC Melgar
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0 FBC Melgar
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 A. Lima
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1 FBC Melgar
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0 FBC Melgar
15 Aug
Los Chankas
0 : 3 FBC Melgar
02 Aug
Moquegua
0 : 0 FBC Melgar
18 Jul
Cienciano
1 : 3 FBC Melgar
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18:7 | 22 |
| 2 | Sport Huancayo | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17:13 | 22 |
| 3 | Universitario de Deportes | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 4 | Sporting Cristal | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:10 | 19 |
| 5 | Juan Pablo II | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21:13 | 19 |
| 6 | Alianza Atl. | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:17 | 19 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:9 | 18 |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 9 | Cusco | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19:14 | 18 |
| 10 | Atletico Grau | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14:13 | 17 |
| 11 | A. Lima | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14:10 | 16 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Cajamarca | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18:24 | 11 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 15 | Los Chankas | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:24 | 9 |
| 16 | Moquegua | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7:21 | 6 |
| 18 | Cajamarca | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11:24 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)
