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UPDF FC vs Vipers Prediction & H2H Stats

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Bombo Stadium, Kampala
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Match Events

56' Event
Usama A.
80' Event
Lubwama E.
85' Event
Watambala K.

AI Match Summary

Vipers in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vipers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
UPDF FC
35%
Draws
32%
Vipers
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Vipers have won more games recently than UPDF FC.
  • 32% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Vipers here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 23%
Vipers Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UPDF FC Vipers
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 5 17
Draws 9 12
Losses 15 2
Goals Scored 0.72 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.48
Expected Goals (xG) 0.46 0.97
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Vipers
1:2
Dec 2, 2025 Premier League
Vipers vs UPDF FC
5:1
Apr 29, 2025 Premier League
Vipers vs UPDF FC
1:0
Jan 3, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Vipers
0:1
Apr 5, 2024 Premier League
Vipers vs UPDF FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UPDF FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lubwama E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.23

Vipers Compare

Top Goalscorer Usama A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Watambala K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UPDF FC 33 / 100
Vipers 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UPDF FC Vipers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vipers Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

UPDF FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

UPDF FC's goal record stands at 45% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Vipers has conceded goals in 45% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

UPDF FC VS Vipers
0.43 Goals Scored 1.38
0.57 Goals Conceded 0.5
29% Over 1.5 63%
29% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

UPDF FC

(Home)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
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Vipers

(Away)
19 Sept
Vipers
3 : 0
Ntugasaze
13 Sept
Nouadhibou
0 : 0
Vipers
05 Sept
Vipers
1 : 1
Nouadhibou
28 Aug
Vipers
0 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
30 Jul
APR
2 : 1
Vipers
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)